The role of international reserves on real exchange rate: a panel data analysis
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https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/ea180445Palavras-chave:
reservas internacionais, taxa de câmbio real, painel ARDLResumo
Este artigo analisa o efeito da acumulação de reservas internacionais nas taxas reais de câmbio de 57 países. Para dados anuais de 1994 a 2017, as estimações via Painel ARDL mostramque níveismais elevados (baixos) de reservas causam apreciação (depreciação) cambial e reduzem (aumentam) sua volatilidade, no longo prazo. Quanto à correção de erros relacionados aos desvios de longo prazo, ajustes de curto prazo na volatilidade cambial ocorrem de forma mais rápida que correções no nível da taxa de câmbio. Efeito Balassa-Samuelson, inflação e diferencial da inflação também são relevantes. Já a independência monetária tem relevância parcial.
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