Trade and interdependence in the economic growth process: a multiplier analysis for Latin America

Resumo

This paper illustrates alternative methodological approaches to the issue of trade and interdependence in the economic growth process with a focus on the countries of Latin America, drawing inspiration from earlier contributions by Machlup, Goodwin and Miyazawa. The world economy is divided into two main blocks ofcountries (Latin America and a selection of developed economies) with the rest of the world forming an aggregated third block. A time series of trade matrices for the period 1978-1991 has been constructed to explore the degree to which changes in one country spillover to the rest ofthe world and the degree to which the changes are symmetric or asymmetric. The approaches reveal that important insights into trade structure can be obtained, insights that will prove of value in the rapidly changing trade regimes of the current and next decades.