Juros e câmbio: haverá combinações de instrumentos menos desgastantes para as metas de inflação?

Resumo

The main objective of this article is to examine to what extent the determination of the interest rate can be adapted to take into account situations of an excessive offer of external capitals, through the Monetary Conditions Index. This paper presents some evidences that the trade balance is more sensitive to activity level than to exchange-rate in the short-run; that the causality order is as follows: recession precedes improved trade balances; that the exchange-rate has been negatively correlated to activity level. It means that increases in the real exchange-rate and deepens in recession can be seen in the economy, which leads us towonder if the exchange-rate role as a transmission mechanism of monetary policy can justify the use of exchange-rate policies as an alternative to the stale high interest-rate policy.