Current account balance and the real exchange rate: the Brazilian case in the last two decades
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https://doi.org/10.11606/1413-8050/ea222285Palavras-chave:
taxa de câmbio, Plano Real, estabilização, déficit comercialResumo
Este estudo analisa a existência de um equilíbrio de longo prazo entre a taxa real de câmbio e a conta de transações correntes do balanço de pagamentos. Foi aplicado um modelo estrutural para entender a relação entre o déficit em transações correntes, taxa real de câmbio, renda nacional e comércio mundial. Assim, foi possível testar a relação de longo prazo entre essas variáveis, bem como os efeitos do desequilíbrio de curto prazo no déficit em conta corrente. A parte empírica aplica a metodologia de Johansen com o objetivo de encontrar as relações de cointegração entre as variáveis mencionadas. Esta análise permite separar a relação de longo prazo da dinâmica de curto prazo, de modo a permitir o entendimento do impacto de choques no equilíbrio dessas variáveis.
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