Economia Aplicada
type: channel
description: Divulgação de trabalhos de análise econômica aplicada a problemas específicos, tanto de interesse do setor público como privado, e que contenham, particularmente, estudos quantitativos, cujos resultados possam aproximar a teoria da realidade.
publisher: Universidade de São Paulo, FEA-RP/USP
language: pt-BR
publication name: Economia Aplicada
issn: 1413-8050
items: O desequilíbrio externo e a taxa de câmbio
items: Observações sobre o Plano Real
items: O Brasil depois do Plano Real
items: Plano Real: do sucesso ao impasse
items: Políticas econômicas e estabilização no Plano Real
items: A politica cambial do Plano Real
items: Os efeitos negativos da politica cambial sobre a agricultura brasileira
items: Current account balance and the real exchange rate: the Brazilian case in the last two decades
items: Opções de política econômica
items: Produção internacional e redes globais: uma resenha
items: As fontes de mudança da eficiência técnica da indústria brasileira após a liberalização comercial: uma estimação econométrica por dados de plantas
items: Estimação da matriz insumo-produto a partir de dados preliminares das contas nacionais
items: Interactive profit maximization modeling for poultry production: a decision model application to soybean and cottonseed meal
items: Ajustes nos mercados de álcool e gasolina entre os anos de 1995 e 2000
items: Produção de camarão marinho em cativeiro: uma análise de eficiência técnica, alocativa e de custos
items: Efeito Fisher, incerteza e aversão ao risco uma análise empírica para o Brasil
items: A taxa de juros de equilíbrio: uma abordagem múltipla
items: Measuring trust: an experiment in Brazil
items: Erros, omissão e os proprietários do conceito de credibilidade
items: Sobre a mensuração da credibilidade das metas para inflação
items: Expectativas inflacionárias e índices de credibilidade nas metas de inflação: quando o formalismo esconde fraquezas e erros
items: Método de obtenção da matriz de insumo-produto do Paraná para o ano de 2000
items: Paridades das taxas de câmbio (FX) nos mercados emergentes
items: Determinantes da taxa de câmbio real, teoria e evidencias empíricas: uma aplicação para o Brasil
items: A análise dos regimes de taxa de câmbio para o Mercosul baseada no bem-estar
items: The spatial pattern of crime in Minas Gerais: an exploratory analysis
items: Analyzing the use of generalized hyperbolic distributions to value at risk calculations
items: Os impactos ambientais industriais da alca no Brasil
items: A descoberta da liberdade
items: Por que estudar economia e por que escolher Economia da Educação

O desequilíbrio externo e a taxa de câmbio
type: item
description: O artigo possui duas partes. A primeira calcula qual seria o ajuste no dólar necessário para trazer o déficit em transações correntes no Brasil de 4,5% do PIB para 2,5% do PIB. Se isso fosse feito sem alterar o nível de atividade, seria necessária uma desvalorização do real entre 12,3% e 18,63%. Se se quisesse evitar a desvalorização mas cortar a atividade econômica, a renda deveria cair entre 11,5% e 14,88%. Para ao mesmo tempo recuperar o nível de pleno emprego e gerar o mesmo resultado no setor externo a desvalorização deveria ser de 18,5% a 28,56%. A segunda parte analisa criticamente a estratégia de política cambial seguida depois de 13.01.99 e tenta avaliar as consequências para a taxa de câmbio de equilíbrio para cinco possíveis cenários internacionais. O ajuste cambial médio varia de 23,36% para o cenário mais favorável a 99,56% para o menos favorável. O trabalho termina com uma análise comparativa entre os sistemas de câmbio livre, flutuação suja, currency board e dolarização.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: desequilíbrio externo
  topic: keywords
subject: política cambial
  topic: keywords
creator: Ruben D. Almonacid
creator: Gabriel Scrimini
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 1999 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 1999-03-01
publication date: 1999-03-01
starting page: 117
ending page: 134
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea222348

Observações sobre o Plano Real
type: item
description: O artigo inicia-se com uma breve descrição da proposta Larida dando ênfase tanto para a fase de denominada de 'transição' como para a fase referida como 'âncora e estabilidade de preços’. Especula-se sobre as possíveis razões para a não adoção da proposta Larida nos planos de estabilização brasileiros. Após questionar as ambiguidades da palavra 'fundamentos’, o texto termina com uma elaboração sobre as dificuldades que poderiam ser encontradas na fixação de uma âncora nominal.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: Plano Real
  topic: keywords
subject: Plano Cruzado
  topic: keywords
subject: estabilização
  topic: keywords
subject: Larida
  topic: keywords
creator: Persio Arida
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 1999 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 1999-03-01
publication date: 1999-03-01
starting page: 109
ending page: 115
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea222347

O Brasil depois do Plano Real
type: item
description: Quatro anos depois do seu lançamento, uma avaliação de conjunto do Plano Real revela resultados ambíguos e paradoxais. O grande sucesso no combate à inflação foi alcançado sem as mudanças profundas no regime fiscal-monetário que muitos consideravam indispensáveis para a estabilização da moeda brasileira. Contudo, a persistente sobrevalorização cambial e a aceleração da abertura às importações produziram grandes desequilíbrios externos e rápido crescimento dos passivos internacionais do país. Além disso, a falta de rigor no controle das contas públicas e as elevadas taxas de juro internas conduziram à ampliação do déficit fiscal e da dívida pública interna de curto prazo. Em consequência, a economia brasileira tornou-se financeiramente vulnerável e muito dependente da disponibilidade de recursos externos. A consolidação da estabilidade monetária e a retomada do crescimento econômico pressupõem o equacionamento dos problemas financeiros do setor público e, em especial, a remoção do desequilíbrio estrutural nas contas externas.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: Plano Real
  topic: keywords
subject: estabilização
  topic: keywords
subject: contas externas
  topic: keywords
subject: política cambial
  topic: keywords
creator: Paulo Nogueira Batista Junior
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 1999 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 1999-03-01
publication date: 1999-03-01
starting page: 95
ending page: 107
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea222319

Plano Real: do sucesso ao impasse
type: item
description: Este artigo trata inicialmente do colapso cambial e da crise monetária e sua influência nas experiências inflacionárias mundiais após 1979. Analisa a seguir a grande dependência da estabilização durante o Plano Real em relação aos financiamentos externos. Uma análise crítica da política de âncora cambial seguida no Brasil após 1994 e então incorporada ao texto. Argumenta-se sobre a inconsistência desta política cambial e da política monetária contracionista de juros altos.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: Plano Real
  topic: keywords
subject: estabilização
  topic: keywords
subject: política cambial
  topic: keywords
creator: Luiz Gonzaga Belluzzo
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 1999 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 1999-03-01
publication date: 1999-03-01
starting page: 79
ending page: 93
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea222318

Políticas econômicas e estabilização no Plano Real
type: item
description: O objetivo deste artigo e esboçar, sem a pretensão de originalidade, um referencial simples de análise e um conjunto de dados sobre o desempenho recente de certos indicadores macroeconômicos da economia brasileira. Argumentar-se-á, assim, que a política cambial do Plano Real - tão criticada - pode ser considerada como integralmente adequada. Por outro lado, a política fiscal deve ser julgada como fortemente inadequada. Finalmente, a política monetária - de juros - deve ser avaliada como inadequada - e, até mesmo, um verdadeiro desastre, pela herança que deixa, na forma de uma elevada dívida pública interna.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: Plano Real
  topic: keywords
subject: estabilização
  topic: keywords
subject: política cambial
  topic: keywords
subject: política monetária
  topic: keywords
creator: Joaquim Elói Cirne de Toledo
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 1999 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 1999-03-01
publication date: 1999-03-01
starting page: 61
ending page: 77
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea222317

A politica cambial do Plano Real
type: item
description: O principal objetivo deste trabalho é analisar os argumentos a favor e contra a política cambial adotada no Brasil desde 1994 e verificar a adaptabilidade desta política à situação brasileira. Os argumentos baseados nos possíveis ganhos de produtividade, na existência de déficit público ou em cálculos contábeis da PPP não são suficientes para justificar a manutenção das taxas de câmbio reais fixas. Teoricamente, a melhor política para induzir o equilíbrio externo e interno seria desvalorizar o câmbio e aumentar a taxa de juros. Entretanto, isto não significa caminhar para uma política de câmbio livre.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: Plano Real
  topic: keywords
subject: estabilização
  topic: keywords
subject: política cambial
  topic: keywords
creator: João Sayad
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 1999 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 1999-03-01
publication date: 1999-03-01
starting page: 47
ending page: 59
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea222293

Os efeitos negativos da politica cambial sobre a agricultura brasileira
type: item
description: Este artigo enfoca os custos incorridos pelo setor agrícola brasileiro como consequência da política cambial adotada no período 1989/97. A forte apreciação da taxa de câmbio durante aquele período, particularmente com o plano Real, provocou uma queda expressiva dos preços agrícolas recebidos pelos produtores no Brasil. Por outro lado, houve um crescimento modesto da produção agrícola brasileira total e apenas um pequeno declínio da produção per capita. O aumento dos preços internacionais durante 1994/97, a expressiva redução dos preços internos dos insumos agrícolas e um significativo aumento da produtividade da terra compensaram a valorização cambial no período.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: Plano Real
  topic: keywords
subject: agricultura
  topic: keywords
subject: política cambial
  topic: keywords
creator: Fernando Homem de Melo
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 1999 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 1999-03-01
publication date: 1999-03-01
starting page: 35
ending page: 46
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea222292

Current account balance and the real exchange rate: the Brazilian case in the last two decades
type: item
description: Este estudo analisa a existência de um equilíbrio de longo prazo entre a taxa real de câmbio e a conta de transações correntes do balanço de pagamentos. Foi aplicado um modelo estrutural para entender a relação entre o déficit em transações correntes, taxa real de câmbio, renda nacional e comércio mundial. Assim, foi possível testar a relação de longo prazo entre essas variáveis, bem como os efeitos do desequilíbrio de curto prazo no déficit em conta corrente. A parte empírica aplica a metodologia de Johansen com o objetivo de encontrar as relações de cointegração entre as variáveis mencionadas. Esta análise permite separar a relação de longo prazo da dinâmica de curto prazo, de modo a permitir o entendimento do impacto de choques no equilíbrio dessas variáveis.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: taxa de câmbio
  topic: keywords
subject: Plano Real
  topic: keywords
subject: estabilização
  topic: keywords
subject: déficit comercial
  topic: keywords
creator: Denisard C. O. Alves
creator: Vera L. Fava
creator: Simão D. Silber
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 1999 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 1999-03-01
publication date: 1999-03-01
starting page: 15
ending page: 33
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea222285

Opções de política econômica
type: item
description: Este trabalho identifica e avalia criticamente através de evidências empíricas e teóricas quatro equívocos relevantes da política econômica seguida durante o Piano Real. O primeiro foi a crença de que a moeda forte ajuda e construir uma economia forte; o segundo foi a desconfiança de que a memória de um longo processo inflacionário transfere para os preços todas as desvalorizações provocadas no câmbio; o terceiro diz que num mundo globalizado existem poupanças externas suficientes para financiar qualquer nível de déficit em conta corrente e ; quarto, que o aumento da produtividade da economia brasileira pode ser promovido pela valorização cambial e sua crescente absorção pelas empresas multinacionais. Estas concepções contribuíram para aumentar as limitações impostas pelo setor externo, historicamente a principal restrição da economia brasileira para o desenvolvimento.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: Plano Real
  topic: keywords
subject: política cambial
  topic: keywords
subject: contas externas
  topic: keywords
creator: Antonio Delfim Netto
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 1999 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 1999-03-01
publication date: 1999-03-01
starting page: 5
ending page: 13
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea222284

Produção internacional e redes globais: uma resenha
type: item
description: The objective ofthis paper is to develop an updated bibliography review with regards to the process of internationalization of production, listing the main explanation for Transnational Corporations (ETs) international production, and focusing in the recent movement of the intensification of this process, where global production networks have a main role.
subject: Resenha
  topic: section
subject: international economics
  topic: keywords
subject: international production and global production networks
  topic: keywords
creator: Pablo Toledo
creator: Paulo C. de Sá Porto
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-04-15
publication date: 2005-04-15
starting page: 325
ending page: 337
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221408

As fontes de mudança da eficiência técnica da indústria brasileira após a liberalização comercial: uma estimação econométrica por dados de plantas
type: item
description: This paper presents empirical evidence about the effects of trade liberalization on the evolution of the technical efficiency ofthe Brazilian manufacturing plants. A. panel data regression model is applied to estimate the changes in labor productivity and real average costs at the plant-level between 1988 and 1994, and between 1994 and 1998. The methodology, originally proposed by James Tybout and Daniel Westbrook (1995), was modified to allow more consistent responses to a central question of the academic debate in Brazil throughout the 1990's, that is, which ofthe following potential sources played the main role in productivity gains in the Brazilian manufacturing sector after trade liberalization: i) a cut in employment (employment effect); ii) output-share reallocations among plants within each industry (marketshare effect); or iii) technical innovations, access to foreign equipment through imports, positive economic externalities, among other factors not observed by the researcher (residual effects)? This paper represents an attempt to provide consistent answers to the above questions in the case of recent Brazilian experience. It provides evidence that the first effect prevailed over the others in explaining the technical efficiency gains ofthe Brazilian manufacturing sector throughout the 1990's.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: trade liberalization
  topic: keywords
subject: productivity
  topic: keywords
subject: technical efficiency
  topic: keywords
subject: Brazil
  topic: keywords
creator: Andre Nassif
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-04-15
publication date: 2005-04-15
starting page: 301
ending page: 324
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221407

Estimação da matriz insumo-produto a partir de dados preliminares das contas nacionais
type: item
description: The goal ofthis study is to present and to analyze a methodology to estimate Input-Output Matrices using preliminary data from the Brazilian National Accounts. This methodology is tested for the years of 1994 and 1996, where the results obtained from the input-output matrices (definitive version) available from IBGE are compared with the matrices estimated using the proposed methodology. The results analyzed refer to: a) type I production multipliers; b) Rasmussen-Hirschman backward and forward linkages; and c) Pure backward and forward linkages. Based on statistical methods (correlation indexes), the results show that the estimated matrices are similar to the ones released by IBGE. As so, this methodology can be used to estimate Brazilian national input-output matrices for the time periods where there are only preliminary data, and the economic structural analysis made with the estimated matrices are valid for the years analyzed.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: input-output
  topic: keywords
subject: national accounts
  topic: keywords
subject: Brazil
  topic: keywords
creator: Joaquim J. M. Guilhoto
creator: Umberto A. Sesso Filho
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-04-15
publication date: 2005-04-15
starting page: 277
ending page: 299
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221406

Interactive profit maximization modeling for poultry production: a decision model application to soybean and cottonseed meal
type: item
description: Profitability of substituting cottonseed meal (CSM) for soybean meal (SBM) in broiler feed is evaluated using a model that optimizes broiler production and processing under changing market conditions. The profit maximization model therefore incorporates feed formulation, broiler production, and broiler processing to determine what feedstuffs yield the heaviest birds to be processed at the lowest cost and for the most profitable processed parts. The optimal solution is determined for scenarios where there are two processing options: whole carcass vs. cut-up parts. For the case-study prices analyzed, CSM-fed broilers may earn higher profits for whole carcass processing, while SBM-fed broilers earn higher returns for cutup parts processing. Price mapping analysis indicates that for given fluctuations ofCSM and SBM prices, using CSM in cut-up parts processing can also be profitable.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: profit maximization
  topic: keywords
subject: cottonseed meal
  topic: keywords
subject: soybean meal
  topic: keywords
subject: price mapping
  topic: keywords
subject: protein levels
  topic: keywords
creator: Ecio de Farias Costa
creator: J. E. Houston
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-04-15
publication date: 2005-04-15
starting page: 257
ending page: 275
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221405

Ajustes nos mercados de álcool e gasolina entre os anos de 1995 e 2000
type: item
description: The aim ofthis study was analyze and characterize the fuel markets — gasoline and anhydrous ethanol, relating the changes effects in associated variables to supply and demand about the agents' behavior in a market partly deregulated, that is, between 1995 and 2000. The model was made up of five equations, being one of gasoline C to retailing and four of fuel prices. The mainly conclusions were: the demand variations tended to be met without major changes in the price of gasoline and its compounds; the wholesale gasoline C and gasoline A at refineries prices adjustments, even moderated, were reposed partly to retailing; the government had a tendency to absorve the external shocks of prices and did not repose immediately to retailing and the retailing did not repose, at the same extent, to the final consumer. The research results reflected sectors still operating under State domain, which controlled their operations without necessarily meeting the economic logic.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: anhydrous ethanol
  topic: keywords
subject: gasoline
  topic: keywords
subject: deregulation
  topic: keywords
subject: fuels
  topic: keywords
creator: Marta Cristina Marjotta-Maistro
creator: Geraldo Sant'Ana de Camargo Barros
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-04-15
publication date: 2005-04-15
starting page: 225
ending page: 256
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221403

Produção de camarão marinho em cativeiro: uma análise de eficiência técnica, alocativa e de custos
type: item
description: The objective of this study was to analyze the technical, allocative and costs efficiency ofshrimp aquaculture by using data envelopment analysis technique. The results showed that 38 shrimp farmers are technically efficient and 30 are inefficient, requiring to reduce the use of inputs by 19,11%. Measures of allocative efficiency and of costs suggested a reduction in the inefficiency of combination of the inputs use and productive costs to maximize profit. The optimum combination ofthe inputs would reduce by 37,13% the operational cost of the inefficient ones. It was concluded that bad combination of the inputs is not allowing to maximize profit, in spite ofthe enormous profitability ofthe sector.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: shrimp aquaculture
  topic: keywords
subject: data envelopment analysis
  topic: keywords
subject: technical
  topic: keywords
subject: allocative
  topic: keywords
subject: costs efficiency
  topic: keywords
creator: Josemar Pereira de Sousa Júnior
creator: Ahmad Saeed Khan
creator: Patrícia Verônica Pinheiro Sales Lima
creator: Raúl Mario Malvino Madrid
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-04-15
publication date: 2005-04-15
starting page: 205
ending page: 224
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221402

Efeito Fisher, incerteza e aversão ao risco uma análise empírica para o Brasil
type: item
description: This paper aims to estimate a Fisher relation embedded with uncertainty for Brazil during the period Jan/75 - Sept/2000. So far the empirical literature for the Brazilian economy only considered a simple one-toone relation between expected inflation and nominal interest rates, which means that agents were risk neutral and any kind of uncertainty was simply "added" to the error term. In the model we consider agents incorporate this risk premium in the nominal rate through the covariance between the inflation rate and consumption growth. Our estimates show that the risk premium is high for hyperinflationary periods, which implies a weaker Fisher effect. Moreover agents have a high risk aversion coefficient in these periods compared to more stable ones.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: Fisher effect
  topic: keywords
subject: risk premium
  topic: keywords
subject: risk aversion
  topic: keywords
subject: smooth consumption
  topic: keywords
subject: cointegration
  topic: keywords
creator: Sérgio Rodrigo Vale
creator: Fabiana Rocha
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-04-15
publication date: 2005-04-15
starting page: 187
ending page: 203
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221401

A taxa de juros de equilíbrio: uma abordagem múltipla
type: item
description: The purpose of this paper is to estimate the equilibrium real interest rate for Brazil using different approaches, in order to incorporate all the available information on the topic. The methods used are: historical interest rates, structural models, a long-run growth model, and through the exchange rate. For all these methods, the estimated equilibrium rates for Brazil were high relative to those found for the rest of the world. Also, a panel with 13 countries was estimated to examine the relationship between interest rates and the sovereign risk premium. A sub-panel of Latin-American countries was also examined.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: taxa de juros real de equilibrio
  topic: keywords
subject: prêmio de risco
  topic: keywords
subject: hiato do produto
  topic: keywords
creator: Pedro Calhman de Miranda
creator: Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-04-15
publication date: 2005-04-15
starting page: 171
ending page: 186
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221399

Measuring trust: an experiment in Brazil
type: item
description: Attitudinal measures of trust, such as those employed by the World Values Survey (WVS) or the General Social Survey (GSS), have been shown to be correlated with important country-level variables reflecting economic and institutional development. However, Glaeser, Laibson, Scheinkman and Soutter (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2000) have found that those attitudinal measures poorly correlate with behavioral measures of trust obtained from an experimental "trust game" involving monetary incentives. We replicate Glaeser's et al. study using Brazilian subjects and performing the experiment under two conditions: when individuals meet face-to-face prior to their interaction, and when they cannot do so. We find that the effect of attitudinal measures of trust (such as the WVS/GSS scale) on subjects' trusting behavior in experimental transactions appears to be significantly larger when they cannot meet face-to-face (a condition that was not employed in Glaeser's et al. study). Echoing Glaeser's et al. results, we also find that attitudinal measures of trust are significantly correlated with rustworthy behavior: individuals who affirm to be more trusting are apparently less inclined to act opportunistically. Thus, evaluating attitudinal measures of trust within appropriate experimental conditions, we find that measures such as the WVS/GSS scale appear to have a role in explaining both trusting and trustworthy behavior.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: trust
  topic: keywords
subject: social capital
  topic: keywords
subject: experimental economics
  topic: keywords
creator: Sergio G. Lazzarini
creator: Regina Madalozzo
creator: Rinaldo Artes
creator: José de Oliveira Siqueira
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-04-15
publication date: 2005-04-15
starting page: 153
ending page: 169
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221397

Erros, omissão e os proprietários do conceito de credibilidade
type: item
subject: Debate
  topic: section
creator: João Sicsú
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-02-20
publication date: 2005-02-20
starting page: 147
ending page: 148
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221395

Sobre a mensuração da credibilidade das metas para inflação
type: item
subject: Debate
  topic: section
creator: Helder Ferreira de Mendonça
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-02-20
publication date: 2005-02-20
starting page: 143
ending page: 146
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221394

Expectativas inflacionárias e índices de credibilidade nas metas de inflação: quando o formalismo esconde fraquezas e erros
type: item
subject: Debate
  topic: section
creator: João Sicsú
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-02-20
publication date: 2005-02-20
starting page: 139
ending page: 142
doi: 10.11606/143-8050/ea221393

Método de obtenção da matriz de insumo-produto do Paraná para o ano de 2000
type: item
description: This article presents the 2000 input-output (TO) accounts for the Parana state economy and the methodological procedure used. Initially it considers the activities and products classification. Next introduce the location quotient method, used to fit technical coefficients of the national matrix. Data source were the national and regional accounts published by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), and fiscal data of the Finance Bureau of Parana. Finally, it describes and presents for the economy of Paraná, the following tables: Make table: industries producing commodities; Use table: commodities used by industries and final uses; The commodity-by-industry direct requirements table; Market Share table; The industry-by-industry direct requirements table; Leontief matrix.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: input-output matrix
  topic: keywords
subject: Paraná economy
  topic: keywords
subject: social accounting
  topic: keywords
creator: Ricardo Kureski
creator: Bias Caballero
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-02-20
publication date: 2005-02-20
starting page: 121
ending page: 137
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221392

Paridades das taxas de câmbio (FX) nos mercados emergentes
type: item
description: This paper aims to test the purchasing power parity (PPP) in emerging markets by using the recent cointegrated panel technique. The relative version of the purchasing power theory is tested for a group of countries, which composes the EMBI Global Index. Our sample is composed of 22 developing countries: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Colombia, Chile, South Korea, Philippines, Malaysia, China, Thailand, Russia, Poland, Bulgaria, Greece, Turkey Hungary, Croatia, Morocco and South Africa. For testing the strong version of the PPFJ we have considered the between-dimension FMOLS (Fully Modified OLS) according to Pedroni (2001). This estimator permits more flexibility relatively to the homogeneity ofthe cointegration vector in the alternative hypothesis ofthe test. Our results have rejected the PPP.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: non-arbitrage
  topic: keywords
subject: cointegrated panels
  topic: keywords
subject: Purchasing Power Parity
  topic: keywords
creator: Joe Akira Yoshino
creator: Silvio Ricardo Micheloto
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-02-20
publication date: 2005-02-20
starting page: 103
ending page: 119
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221391

Determinantes da taxa de câmbio real, teoria e evidencias empíricas: uma aplicação para o Brasil
type: item
description: We test for the Brazilian economy three theories for the determination of the real exchange rate: 1. The theory of the Purchase Power Parity (PPP) relative, which implies constant real exchange rate; 2. The hypothesis of the relative variation of the productivity, which asserts that the increase of the productivity differential between producer sector of traded goods and the producer sector of no traded goods of a country regarding other countries carries to the real valorization ofthe exchange rate; 3. The transfers effect, which affirms that the income transfers abroad generate real devaluation of the exchange rate, and the transfers receipt generates valorization. The results carried to the rejection of PPP relative and to the confirmation of the importance of the relative variation of the productivity and of the transfers effect in the determination of the real exchange rate of Brazil. The rejection of PPP relative implies do not there be a constant balance rate, to the which the exchange rate always would return. And the importance of the relative variation ofthe productivity and ofthe transfers effect makes the rate ofreal exchange rate be subject the flotations certain for real variables, like the relative productivity abroad and the net external passive.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: Purchase Power Parity
  topic: keywords
subject: transfers effect
  topic: keywords
subject: Balassa-Samuelson
  topic: keywords
creator: Ailton Braga
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2024-01-17
publication date: 2024-01-17
starting page: 77
ending page: 102
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221390

A análise dos regimes de taxa de câmbio para o Mercosul baseada no bem-estar
type: item
description: This paper analyzes the Mercosur s exchange arrangement toward a welfare-based approach. Therefore it was used an open-economy macroeconomic dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates three economies with nominal rigidities and imperfect competition in product and factors markets. The main conclusion points out to the adequate exchange arrangement for economic bloc is Argentine and Brazil should fix each other their local currencies and set free fluctuation in relationship with the remainder international economies.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: exchange arrangement
  topic: keywords
subject: international macroeconomics
  topic: keywords
subject: welfare analysis
  topic: keywords
subject: Mercosur
  topic: keywords
creator: Divanildo Trichcs
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-02-20
publication date: 2005-02-20
starting page: 57
ending page: 75
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221389

The spatial pattern of crime in Minas Gerais: an exploratory analysis
type: item
description: This paper is aimed at examining spatial pattern of crime in the state otMinas Gerais, Brazil. In methodological terms, this paper uses exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) to study the distribution of crime rates in more than 750 municipalities of this state for 1995. The findings reveal that crime rates are distributed non-randomly, suggesting positive spatial autocorrelation. Moreover, spatial heterogeneity represented by both the positive local spatial association (spatial regimes of HH and LL municipalities) and the negative local spatial association (spatial regimes of HL and LH municipalities) is identified. Only one spatial outlier ofHH type is detected, but it does not have any influential impact on the level ofspatial autocorrelation, measured by the Moran s 1. Furthermore, a simple spatial regimes model with inertial effects, but without any causal covariates, has an explanatory power of about 70% of the variation in the crime data. In this regard, the inertial effect is a very relevant aspect ofthe crime in Minas Gerais. The pattern ofspatial distribution revealed through ESDA provides an empirical and solid foundation for the further econometric specification ofmultivariate models.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA)
  topic: keywords
subject: crime rates
  topic: keywords
subject: spatial regimes
  topic: keywords
subject: inertial effects
  topic: keywords
subject: spatial autocorrelation
  topic: keywords
creator: Eduardo Simões de Almeida
creator: Eduardo Amaral Haddad
creator: Geoffrey J. D. Hewings
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-02-20
publication date: 2005-02-20
starting page: 39
ending page: 55
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221387

Analyzing the use of generalized hyperbolic distributions to value at risk calculations
type: item
description: The goal of this paper is to analyze the use of the Generalized Hyperbolic (GH) Distributions to model the US Dollar/Brazilian Real exchange rate in a way to produce more accurate VaR (Value at Risk) measurements. After the GH parameters estimation, several distances were calculated to verify the fitting quality of Normal distribution and GH distribution family to empirical data. The GH Distributions had shown to be more adequate for modeling the US Dollar/Brazilian Real exchange rate, since they produced smaller distances, especially in tails. Additionally, several methodologies for VaR calculation were compared using the Kupiec test: Historical Simulation, RiskMetrics®, unconditional Normal, GH, Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) and Hyperbolic, and GARCH models using Normal, GH, Hyperbolic and NIG. The GH Distribution and its subclasses showed better results than unconditional Normal. The use of a GARCH model for volatility forecasting produced satisfactory results, being the main factor of success. Two estimation methods were used: Maximum Log-Likelihood and Minimization of the FOF distance; but both produced similar results. As the Maximum Log-Likelihood showed to be faster we recommend this method. Overall, our recommendation the use of a GH family distribution re-scaled by a GARCH volatility and estimated by Maximum Log-Likelihood.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: value at risk
  topic: keywords
subject: generalized hyperbolic distributions
  topic: keywords
subject: backtesting
  topic: keywords
creator: José Santiago Fajardo Barbadian
creator: Aquiles Rocha de Farias
creator: José Renato Haas Ornelas
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-02-20
publication date: 2005-02-20
starting page: 25
ending page: 38
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221386

Os impactos ambientais industriais da alca no Brasil
type: item
description: This study is an attempt to estimate the industrial environmental impacts due to FTAA in Brazil. Based on these CGE model results from Tourinho and Kume (2002), we estimate the resulting changes of pollution emission and water and energy use levels in the Brazilian industrial sector due to FTAA. Our results are very interesting since economy-aggregate direct environmental impacts of FTAA on the Brazilian economy are expected to be, in general, very minor and in the direction of a lower air pollution intensity (paniculate and SO2) and energy uses. Flowever, it is expected an increasing intensity in water pollution and uses and CO2 emissions. These changes will occur in few sectors where already exist dynamic technological and environmental policies and motivation to meet export market stricter environmental rules.
subject: Artigos
  topic: section
subject: trade
  topic: keywords
subject: environmental impacts
  topic: keywords
subject: general equilibrium
  topic: keywords
creator: Ronaldo Seroa da Motta
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2005 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2005-02-20
publication date: 2005-02-20
starting page: 5
ending page: 23
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221384

A descoberta da liberdade
type: item
subject: Resenha
  topic: section
creator: Antonio Delfim Netto
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2004 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2004-08-15
publication date: 2004-08-15
starting page: 833
ending page: 839
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221380

Por que estudar economia e por que escolher Economia da Educação
type: item
subject: Como eu pesquiso
  topic: section
creator: Claudio de Moura Castro
rights: Direitos autorais (c) 2004 Economia Aplicada http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
date: 2004-08-15
publication date: 2004-08-15
starting page: 817
ending page: 831
doi: 10.11606/1413-8050/ea221378