O impacto da incerteza nos ciclos econômicos do Brasil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575531gftPalavras-chave:
Incerteza, Ciclos Econômicos, GMMResumo
Os determinantes das flutuações de curto prazo na atividade econômica tem sido objeto de estudo de uma vasta literatura, mas tentativas de avaliar a importância da incerteza somente tornaram-se evidentes após a Grande Recessão. Elevações na incerteza induzem um comportamento cauteloso nos agentes econômicos, levando as firmas a postergarem planos de investimento e os consumidores a adiarem o consumo. Este artigo busca averiguar a relevância da incerteza para as flutuações de curto prazo da economia brasileira. Utilizando dados mensais entre 1996 e 2023, e considerando indicadores alternativos de incerteza, o artigo estima modelos com base no método generalizado dos momentos, que permite lidar com a possibilidade de endogeneidade. Os resultados indicam que elevações na incerteza – particularmente aquela associada à instabilidade no mercado financeiro – enfraquece a demanda agregada no Brasil.
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Atualizado em 14/08/2025