Um estudo sobre a diversificação espacial de riscos climáticos em seguros agrícolas no Brasil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575546jndPalavras-chave:
Seguros agrícolas, Mudanças climáticas, Econometria espacial, Risco sistêmicoResumo
A produção agrícola no Brasil representa cerca de 6,9% do PIB e está fortemente exposta a riscos climáticos. Apesar de sua relevância econômica, os efeitos de eventos climáticos adversos sobre os sinistros de seguros agrícolas ainda são pouco conhecidos. Este trabalho avalia os efeitos de variáveis climáticas sobre os sinistros diretos em seguros agrícolas, por meio de modelos de econometria espacial com dados em painel. São utilizados dados oficiais do mercado segurador brasileiro e de medições meteorológicas, mensalmente entre jan/2006 e ago/2023, totalizando 5.460 observações de 26 estados brasileiros. Todos os modelos espaciais estimados apontam consistentemente que as variáveis climáticas estão fortemente associadas aos sinistros. Particularmente, a precipitação não apresenta efeito direto significante, apenas quando afeta simultaneamente múltiplos vizinhos (e.g., enchentes e alagamentos). Já a força do vento e a umidade (indicador principal de secas, se baixa, e de geadas, se elevada e concomitante a baixas temperaturas) são fatores relevantes para explicar os sinistros. Observa-se, também, concentração de prêmios emitidos nas regiões Sul e Sudeste, sugerindo riscos potenciais de concentração geográfica. Os achados podem apoiar (res)seguradoras na diversificação e precificação de portfólios. Também oferecem subsídios a agricultores e formuladores de políticas públicas na mitigação de perdas e alocação de recursos.
Downloads
Referências
Abrego-Perez, Adriana, and Carlos Felipe Valencia-Arboleda. 2023. “A Drought Index as a Way to Improve Hedging Effectiveness for Copula Insurance Models.” SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4353828.
Adhikari, Shyam, Eric J. Belasco, and Thomas O. Knight. 2010. “Spatial Producer Heterogeneity in Crop Insurance Product Decisions within Major Corn Producing States.” Agricultural Finance Review 70 (1): 66–78. https://doi.org/10.1108/00021461011042648.
Anselin, Luc. 1988a. Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Deodrecht.
Anselin, Luc. 1988b. Spatial Econometrics: Metodhs and Models. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Deodrecht.
Bootsma, A. 1976. “Estimating Minimum Temperature and Climatological Freeze Risk in Hilly Terrain.” Agricultural Meteorology 16 (3): 425–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/0002-1571(76)90010-8.
Braga, Gustavo Bastos, Hewlley Maria Acioli Imbuzeiro, Gabrielle Ferreira Pires, Lais Rosa de Oliveira, Rodney Alves Barbosa, and Katia de Fatima Vilela. 2021. “Frost Risk and Rural Insurance in Brazil.” Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia 36 (4): 703–11. https://doi.org/10.1590/0102-7786360137.
Brás, Teresa Armada, Júlia Seixas, Nuno Carvalhais, and Jonas Jägermeyr. 2021. “Severity of Drought and
Heatwave Crop Losses Tripled over the Last Five Decades in Europe.” Environmental Research Letters 16 (6): 065012. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf004.
Brasil. 2021. Histórico de Perdas Na Agricultura Brasileira. Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento Secretaria de Política Agrícola.
Buainain, Antônio Márcio, Carlos A M Santana, Felipe Prince Silva, Junior Ruiz Garcia, and Pedro Loyola.
“O Tripé Da Política Agrícola Brasileira Crédito Rural, Seguro e Pronaf.” In O Mundo Rural No Brasil
Do Século 21: A Formação de Um Novo Padrão Agrário e Agrícola. 1ed.Brasilia/DF: Embrapa Informação
Carvalho, João Vinícius França, and Acássio Silva Guimarães. 2024. “Systemic Risk Assessment Using Complex Networks Approach: Evidence from the Brazilian (Re)Insurance Market.” Research in International Business and Finance 67 (January):102065. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102065.
Cerqueti, Roy, Paolo Maranzano, and Raffaele Mattera. 2024. “Spatially-Clustered Spatial Autoregressive
Models with Application to Agricultural Market Concentration in Europe.” Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, July. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-024-00672-4.
Chang, Jen-Hu. 1977. “Tropical Agriculture: Crop Diversity and Crop Yields.” Economic Geography 53 (3):
https://doi.org/10.2307/143190.
Dal Pozzo, Beatriz Salandin, André Luis Zorzi, and Vitor Augusto Ozaki. 2025. “Seguro Agrícola Na Lavoura
de Soja: Fatores de Impacto Nos Resultados Das Seguradoras.” Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural 63.
https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2025.284948.
Embrechts, Paul, Alexander J. McNeil, and Daniel Straumann. 2002. “Correlation and Dependence in Risk
Management: Properties and Pitfalls.” In Risk Management, 176–223. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511615337.008.
Euphasio Junior, Jorge Wilson, and João Vinícius França Carvalho. 2022. “Reinsurance and Solvency Capital:
Mitigating Insurance Companies’ Ruin Probability.” Revista de Administração Contemporânea 26 (1). https://doi.org/10.1590/1982-7849rac2022200191.en.
FAO. 2023. The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2023. Rome, Italy: FAO, United Nations. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc7900en.
Florax, Raymond J.G.M., Hendrik Folmer, and Sergio J. Rey. 2003. “Specification Searches in Spatial Econometrics: The Relevance of Hendry’s Methodology.” Regional Science and Urban Economics 33 (5): 557–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-0462(03)00002-4.
Fonseca, Marisa Gesteira, Lincoln Muniz Alves, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Egidio Arai, Liana Oighenstein
Anderson, Thais Michele Rosan, Yosio Edemir Shimabukuro, and Luiz Eduardo Oliveira Cruz Aragão. 2019.
“Effects of Climate and Land‐use Change Scenarios on Fire Probability during the 21st Century in the Brazilian Amazon.” Global Change Biology 25 (9): 2931–46. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14709.
Fonseca, Nathalia Costa, João Vinícius França Carvalho, and Thiago Dutra Araujo. 2024. “When There’s No
November Rain: Developing a Parametric Insurance for Hydroelectric Energy Generators in Brazil.” In Anais do 52º Encontro Nacional de Economia, 1–20.
Fritzsons, Elenice, Luiz Eduardo Mantovani, and Marcos Silveira Wrege. 2016. “Relação Entre Altitude e
Temperatura: Uma Contribuição Ao Zoneamento Climático No Estado de Santa Catarina, Brasil (Relationship between Altitude and Temperature: A Contribuition to Climatic Zonning for the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil).”Revista Brasileira de Climatologia 18 (July). https://doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v18i0.39471.
Getirana, Augusto, Renata Libonati, and Marcio Cataldi. 2021. “Brazil Is in Water Crisis—It Needs a Drought
Plan.” Nature 600 (7888): 218–20.
Goodwin, Barry K., and Ashley Hungerford. 2015. “Copula‐Based Models of Systemic Risk in U.S. Agriculture: Implications for Crop Insurance and Reinsurance Contracts.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 97 (3): 879–96. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aau086.
Goodwin, Barry K., and Nicholas E. Piggott. 2020. “Has Technology Increased Agricultural Yield Risk? Evidence from the Crop Insurance Biotech Endorsement.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 102 (5): 1578–97. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajae.12087.
Goodwin, Barry K. 2001. “Problems with Market Insurance in Agriculture.” American Journal of Agricultural
Economics 83 (3): 643–49.
Guimarães, Thais Camolesi, and Alexandre Toshiro Igari. 2019. “Mudança Do Clima e Seus Impactos No Seguro Agrícola No Brasil.” Revista Em Agronegócio e Meio Ambiente 12 (4): 1583. https://doi.org/10.17765/2176-9168.2019v12n4p1583-1604.
Hazell, Peter, and Panos Varangis. 2020. “Best Practices for Subsidizing Agricultural Insurance.” Global Food Security 25 (September 2019): 100326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2019.100326.
Hochman, Zvi, David L Gobbett, and Heidi Horan. 2017. “Climate Trends Account for Stalled Wheat Yields in
Australia since 1990.” Global Change Biology 23 (5): 2071–81. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13604.
IPCC. 2012. “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaption: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.” New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
Kelejian, Harry, and Gianfranco Piras. 2017. Spatial Econometrics. Academic Press.
Khan, Majid, and Abdul Rashid. 2022. “(A)Symmetry Effects of Climate Changes on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis.” International Review of Economics 69 (4): 571–607.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12232-022-00406-3.
Kubara, Maria, and Katarzyna Kopczewska. 2023. “Akaike Information Criterion in Choosing the Optimal KNearest Neighbours of the Spatial Weight Matrix.” Spatial Economic Analysis, 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2023.2176539.
Lowder, Sarah K, Marco V Sánchez, and Raffaele Bertini. 2019. Farms, Family Farms, Farmland Distribution
and Farm Labour What Do We Know Today? Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Malhi, Gurdeep Singh, Manpreet Kaur, and Prashant Kaushik. 2021. “Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Its Mitigation Strategies: A Review.” Sustainability 13 (3): 1318. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13031318.
Martins, Amanda Posselt, Sérgio Ely Valadão Gigante de Andrade Costa, Ibanor Anghinoni, Taise Robinson Kunrath, Diego Cecagno, José Miguel Reichert, Fabrício Balerini, Lúcia Rebello Dillenburg, and Paulo César de Faccio Carvalho. 2016. “Soil Moisture and Soybean Physiology Affected by Drought in an Integrated Crop-Livestock System.” Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira 51 (8): 978–89.
https://doi.org/10.1590/S0100-204X2016000800010.
Martins, Gilson, and Guilherme Signorini. 2025. “Enhancing Crop Insurance Analysis with Agricultural Zoning Data.” Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural 63. https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2025.284274.
Mason, Chuck, Dermot J. Hayes, and Sergio H. Lence. 2003. “Systemic Risk in U.S. Crop Reinsurance Programs.” Agricultural Finance Review 63 (1): 23–39. https://doi.org/10.1108/00214980380001139.
Mendonça, Walef Machado de, and Patrícia De Siqueira Ramos. 2023. “Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis of Multivariate Rural Insurance Data.” Brazilian Journal of Biometrics 41 (4): 398–411. https://doi.org/10.28951/bjb.v41i4.642.
Michaelides, Marie, Mélina Mailhot, and Yongkun Li. 2025. “Probabilistic Crop Yields Forecasts With Spatio-
Temporal Conditional Copula Using Extreme Weather Covariates,” March. https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.22807v1.
Miquelluti, Daniel Lima, Vitor Augusto Ozaki, and David José Miquelluti. 2022. “An Application of Geographically Weighted Quantile Lasso to Weather Index Insurance Design.” Revista de Administração Contemporânea 26 (3): e200387. https://doi.org/10.1590/1982-7849rac2022200387.en.
Miranda, Mario J., and Joseph W. Glauber. 1997. “Systemic Risk, Reinsurance, and the Failure of Crop Insurance Markets.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 79 (1): 206–15. https://doi.org/10.2307/1243954.
Monteleone, Beatrice, Iolanda Borzí, Brunella Bonaccorso, and Mario Martina. 2023. “Quantifying Crop Vulnerability to Weather-Related Extreme Events and Climate Change through Vulnerability Curves.” Natural Hazards 116 (3): 2761–96. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05791-0.
Mota, Arthur Lula, Daniel Lima Miquelluti, and Vitor Augusto Ozaki. 2020. “Predição de Sinistros Agrícolas:
Uma Abordagem Comparativa Utilizando Aprendizagem de Máquina.” Economia Aplicada 24 (4): 533–54.
https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/ea161194.
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Ravinesh C Deo, Shahbaz Mushtaq, Jarrod Kath, and Shahjahan Khan. 2019. “Copula Statistical Models for Analyzing Stochastic Dependencies of Systemic Drought Risk and Potential Adaptation Strategies.”Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 33 (3): 779–99. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-019-01662-6.
Okhrin, Ostap, Martin Odening, and Wei Xu. 2013. “Systemic Weather Risk and Crop Insurance: The Case
of China.” Journal of Risk and Insurance 80 (2): 351–72. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2012.01476.x.
Ozaki, Vitor A. 2007. “O Papel Do Seguro Na Gestão Do Risco Agrícola e Os Empecilhos Para o Seu Desenvolvimento.” Revista Brasileira de Risco e Seguro 2 (4): 75–92.
Park, Eunchun, B. Wade Brorsen, and Ardian Harri. 2019. “Using Bayesian Kriging for Spatial Smoothing in Crop Insurance Rating.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 101 (1): 330–51. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aay045.
Phélippé-Guinvarc’h, Martial V., and Jean E. Cordier. 2006. “A Private Management Strategy for the Crop Yield Insurer: A Theoretical Approach and Tests.” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 39 (1): 35–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2006.01.003.
Rattis, Ludmila, Paulo M. Brando, Marcia N. Macedo, Stephanie A. Spera, Andrea D. A. Castanho, Eduardo
Q.Marques, Nathane Q. Costa, Divino V. Silverio, and Michael T. Coe. 2021. “Climatic Limit for Agriculture in
Brazil.” Nature Climate Change 11 (12): 1098–1104. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01214-3.
Rensi, Rafael Tonet, and João Vinícius França Carvalho. 2023. “De Basileia Para o Campo: Estimando a Estrutura de Dependência de Default Em Portfólios de Crédito Rural Por Meio de Cópulas.” In Anais: XLVII EnANPAD, 1–19. São Paulo.
Salgueiro, Andrea Martínez, and Maria-Antonia Tarrazon-Rodon. 2021. “Is Diversification Effective in Reducing the Systemic Risk Implied by a Market for Weather Index-Based Insurance in Spain?” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 62 (August):102345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102345.
Santana, Carlos A M, Antônio Márcio Buainain, Felipe Prince, Silva Junior Ruiz, and Garcia Pedro Loyola. 2014. “Política Agrícola Avanços e Retrocessos Ao Longo de Uma Trajetória Positiva.” In O Mundo Rural No Brasil Do Século 21: A Formação de Um Novo Padrão Agrário e Agrícola. 1ed.Brasilia/DF: Embrapa Informação Tecnológica. https://www.gov.br/agricultura/ptbr/assuntos/riscosseguro/segurorural/observatoriodosegurorural/estudos/estudos-2014/2014-carlos-a-m-santana-politica-agricola-avancos-e-retrocessos-ao-longo-de-uma-trajetoria-positiva.pdf.
Schmitt, Jonas, Frank Offermann, Andreia F.S. Ribeiro, and Robert Finger. 2024. “Drought Risk Management in Agriculture: A Copula Perspective on Crop Diversification.” Agricultural Economics 55 (5): 823–47. https://doi.org/10.1111/AGEC.12851.
Son, Rackhun, Hyungjun Kim, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Jee-Hoon Jeong, Sung-Ho Woo, Ji-Yoon Jeong, Byung-
Doo Lee, et al. 2021. “Changes in Fire Weather Climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warming.” Environmental Research Letters 16 (3): 034058. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe675.
Su, Yang, Benoit Gabrielle, and David Makowski. 2021. “The Impact of Climate Change on the Productivity of Conservation Agriculture.” Nature Climate Change 11 (7): 628–33. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01075-w.
Sultan, Benjamin, Dimitri Defrance, and Toshichika Iizumi. 2019. “Evidence of Crop Production Losses in
West Africa Due to Historical Global Warming in Two Crop Models.” Scientific Reports 9 (1): 12834.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-49167-0.
Sun, Yan, and Ke Wang. 2022. “The Implication of Copula-Based Models for Crop Insurance and Reinsurance Under Systemic Risk.” Frontiers in Environmental Science 10 (July). https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.916494. The World Bank. 2022. “Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing, Value Added (% of GDP).” 2022.
Torres, Ronaldo, Carlos José Caetano Bacha, and Luzia Aparecida Antunes. 2024. “Análise Dos Programas
Federais de Seguro Rural No Brasil de 2000 a 2022.” Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural 62 (3): e281275. https://doi.org/10.1590/1806-9479.2023.281275.
Torres, Ronaldo, André Luis Zorzi, Gabriele Silva Almeida, and Vitor Augusto Ozaki. 2024. “Avaliação Do
Seguro Agrícola, Riscos Sistêmicos e Diversificação.” Revista de Economia e Agronegócio 21 (2): 1–18. https://doi.org/10.25070/rea.v21i2.15372.
Wang, H Holly, and Hao Zhang. 2003. “On the Possibility of a Private Crop Insurance Market: A Spatial Statistics Approach.” The Journal of Risk and Insurance 70 (1): 111–24.
Woodard, Joshua D., and Philip Garcia. 2008. “Basis Risk and Weather Hedging Effectiveness.” Agricultural
Finance Review 68 (1): 99–117. https://doi.org/10.1108/00214660880001221.
Wrege, Marcos Silveira, Elenice Fritzsons, Márcia Toffani Simão Soares, Angélica Prela-Pântano, Silvio
Steinmetz, Paulo Henrique Caramori, Bernadete Radin, and Cristina Pandolfo. 2018. “Risco de Ocorrência de Geadas Na Região Centro-Sul Do Brasil.” Revista Brasileira de Climatologia 22 (June). https://doi.org/10.5380/abclima.v22i0.57306.
Xu, Wei, Guenther Filler, Martin Odening, and Ostap Okhrin. 2010. “On the Systemic Nature of Weather Risk.” Agricultural Finance Review 70 (2): 267–84. https://doi.org/10.1108/00021461011065283.
Ye, Tao, Wuyang Hu, Barry J. Barnett, Jiwei Wang, and Yu Gao. 2020. “Area Yield Index Insurance or Farm Yield Crop Insurance? Chinese Perspectives on Farmers’ Welfare and Government Subsidy Effectiveness.” Journal of Agricultural Economics 71 (1): 144–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12326.
Yun, Seong D., and Benjamin M. Gramig. 2022. “Spatial Panel Models of Crop Yield Response to Weather:
Econometric Specification Strategies and Prediction Performance.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 54 (1): 53–71. https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2021.29.
Zhang, Peng, Xin Yang, Yiting Chen, Zhenhua Wei, and Fulai Liu. 2021. “Dissecting the Combined Effects of
Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Water-Use Efficiency of Barley under Drought Stress.” Journal of
Agronomy and Crop Science 207 (4): 606–17. https://doi.org/10.1111/JAC.12475.
Publicado
Edição
Seção
Licença
Copyright (c) 2025 João Vinícius França Carvalho, Nathalia Costa Fonseca, Daniel Bagatini
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
A submissão de artigo autoriza sua publicação e implica o compromisso de que o mesmo material não esteja sendo submetido a outro periódico.
A revista não paga direitos autorais aos autores dos artigos publicados.
Dados de financiamento
-
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
Números do Financiamento 305589/2024-5 -
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
Números do Financiamento 88887.955886/2024-00
Atualizado em 14/08/2025