The effects of the Bolsa Família Program(PBF) on the labor market: an analysis with Causal Forest
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575625rrsKeywords:
Bolsa Família Program (PBF), Causal Forest, Heterogeneity of effectsAbstract
This study examines the impact of the Bolsa Família Program (PBF) on three outcomes: the likelihood of employment, the probability of holding a formal employment contract, and the number of hours worked. Using the Causal Forest method and data from the second quarter of 2023 of the PNAD Contínua, the results indicate that PBF beneficiaries are less likely to be employed, particularly in formal jobs, and tend to work fewer hours per week. The effects vary across demographic groups, with women, individuals aged 30 or older, and urban residents experiencing the most significant reductions in formal employment and hours worked.Downloads
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Atualizado em 14/08/2025