Os efeitos do novo regionalismo sobre o comércio
Keywords:
Regional integration, Gravity model, Panel dataAbstract
From 1990 there was a proliferation of Preferential Trade Agreements notified to the
World Trade Organization and this study aims to identify whether this new regionalism
led to trade creation or trade diversion to their participants, using a gravity model
based on panel data over the period 1990-2009. The results suggest the existence of
trade creation and export diversion due to the formation of Mercosur. With regards to
NAFTA, besides being the only bloc that showed an anticipatory effect on their trade
flows within the region, there are signs that the growth of trade occurred due to trade
creation. Nevertheless, there are indications that the Asean and PAFTA caused trade
diversion. Finally, the way that trade flows evolved within each bloc (ex ante and ex
post) was quite different, not only in terms of trade volume but also on how quickly
they responded to their formation, with its effects arising immediately in some cases
and in others taking a few years.
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