O periódico Estudos Econômicos foi criado em 1971 por iniciativa do Departamento de Economia da Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária da Universidade de São Paulo. Publica trabalhos inéditos com contribuição original em qualquer área da Economia, comprometendo-se com padrões acadêmicos de excelência e com a pluralidade de ideias, métodos e teorias. Sua periodicidade é trimestral. Está classificado no estrato mais elevado, A1, do ranking Qualis da CAPES.
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária
By submitting an article, the author authorizes its publication and attests that it has not been submitted to any other journal. The original article is considered final. Articles selected for publication are proofread for grammatical and orthographic errors. The journal does not pay rights for published articles. The Institute of Economic Research from the School of Economics, Business and Accounting of the University of São Paulo (Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas da Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade da Universidade de São Paulo) owns the journal's copyright.
Export led growth induced and virtuous circle: a cluster analysis of economies between 1950 and 2019
This article aimed at investigating, through a Kaldorian approach, the export led growth in a sample of 183 economies in the period from 1950 to 2019. Two hypotheses were evaluated: the one of the virtuous circle, which the increase in the export growth rate elevates the economic growth rate, and the vicious circle, in which at least one of the links in the causal and cumulative process is zero. The hypotheses are tested using longitudinal clusters defined by the average trend of real GDP in the economies. In addition to GDP evolution clusters from the Phillips and Sul methodology (2007; 2009), a multiple regression of the Growth Model with Cumulative Causality was estimated, using panel data and fixed effect control. As a result, 70 economies were found to be in the virtuous circle and 113 in the vicious circle of growth.
Copyright (c) 2025 Marcos Tostes Lamonica, Sergiany da Silva Lima https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Structural persistence of Brazil's inflation rate in times of fiscal bubbles
We estimate the hybrid Phillips curve to verify whether the explosive debt bubble regime can affect inflation’s level and persistence as measured by the IPCA price inflation from January 2002 to November 2023. Gross debt-to-GDP ratio explosive behavior significantly increases the weight of backward-looking price-setters, leading to cost push shocks that are more persistent and policy less potent. We find a downward bias in the lagged inflation coefficient in which only a lower fraction of the firms are backward-looking price-setters using the standard approach. More specifically, the weight of past inflation ranges from 0.24 to 0.77 in standard approaches, while accounting for debt bubble’s inertia coefficient increases to 0.99. The fiscal instance in operation partially explains the inflation dynamics at the time. Under normal conditions, inertia tends to decrease and increase as the public debt reaches an explosive path. Worse fiscal stances can considerably reduce the effectiveness of sounder monetary policy actions in accomplishing the target rising inertia. More sustainable fiscal conditions improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in curbing inflation. Our empirical findings are supported by consistent estimation applying instrumental variables regression methods robust to many (possibly weak) instruments in heteroskedastic environments. We deal appropriately with structural breaks and stationarity issues of the variables under study. Nonlinearity tests and structural break tests at an unknown time with endogenous regressors show that the instability of the parameters plays no role in the results.
Copyright (c) 2026 André de Mattos Marques https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
The impact of uncertainty on business cycles in Brazil
The literature on the determinants of short-run fluctuations in economic activity abound but attempts to account for the role of uncertainty only emerged after the Great Recession. Increasing uncertainty slows down economic activity as precautionary behavior leads companies to delay investment plans and households to postpone consumption. This paper evaluates the importance of uncertainty to short-run fluctuations in the Brazilian economy. Using monthly data from 1996 to 2023 and relying on several proxies for uncertainty, the article estimates models based on the generalized method of moments, which controls the possibility of endogeneity. The results indicate that increases in uncertainty – particularly that associated with financial markets’ instability – weaken aggregate demand in Brazil.
Copyright (c) 2025 Gisele Ferreira Tiryaki https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Review of the book “The causes of Portuguese backwardness”, by Nuno Palma
Nuno Palma’s book seeks to explain why Portugal is poor in relation to Europe, despite having had a favourable trajectory in the 17th century. The central thesis of this study is that the extraction and shipment of Brazilian gold in the 18th century acted as a ‘resource curse’. This influx of gold precipitated a cycle of currency appreciation and domestic price inflation, culminating in deindustrialisation and a decline in competitiveness. The review hypothesises that Palma’s interpretation of the negative impact of Brazilian gold on Portuguese industry appears to be more applicable to the first half of the 18th century than to the entire century, or the subsequent period. Palma’s analysis does not address the significant rise in colonial trade during the late 18th and early 19th centuries, thereby overlooking its pivotal role in the development of Portuguese industry. The author puts forward the argument that the Empire did not make a significant contribution to the economic prosperity of Portugal. Moreover, the policies enacted by the Marquis of Pombal proved to be detrimental, particularly the expulsion of the Jesuits, which hindered advancements in education, a fundamental element in the pursuit of development. The modern economic growth of Portugal appears to have occurred exclusively between 1950 and 2000, driven by industrialisation, literacy, and European integration. The review hypothesises that the late demographic transition in Portugal could be a contributing factor to the country’s underperformance.
A deviant development in choice theory: the contributions byArmstrong, Luce, and Fishburn
Recent research in the history of economic thought has shown the diversity of themes and positions concerning economic behavior in the so-called Ordinalist Revolution. This paper aims to recover the developments of a research line that began by critically examining the developments of that theoretical movement. The investigation departs from W. E. Armstrong’s insistent defense of the intransitivity of indifference based on evidence from experimental psychology, pointing out the impossibility of discernment between close alternatives. The study verifies how R. D. Luce, an influential mathematician in psychology, formalized Armstrong’s idea with a semiorder concept, a generalization of a weak order, the standard representation of preferences in microeconomics. Lastly, the investigation is on the role of P. C. Fishburn in this episode, considering that he was a remarkable author in mathematical economics, with several contributions in choice, uncertainty, and collective choice theories, including related work with the indifference intransitivity assumption in these topics.
Copyright (c) 2025 Gustavo Aggio https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Copyright (c) 2025 Samuel de Abreu Pessôa https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Impacts of rehabilitation for people with disabilities in the Brazilian labor market
This study analyzes the impacts of rehabilitation treatment for people with disabilities in the Brazilian labor market, using microdata from the Brazilian National Health Survey, conducted in 2019. Quasi-experimental strategies were adopted to examine the effects in two dimensions of interest: employment and hourly wage earnings. The results reveal that rehabilitation, especially when carried out through health insurance or privately, has a significant and positive impact on the likelihood of employment, particularly among people with most severe disabilities. This type of treatment also results in labor income increases in both formal and informal markets. In contrast, treatment provided by the public health system, although it increases of employment, does not translate into wage improvements. The conclusions highlight the importance of policies to strengthen public rehabilitation services and interventions, improving the accessibility and continuity of treatment to promote more effective and equitable inclusion of people with disabilities in the labor market.
Copyright (c) 2025 Daniel Morales Martínez, Alexandre Gori Maia, Guirlanda Maria Benevides https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
A study on the spatial diversification of climate risks in agricultural insurance in Brazil
Agricultural production in Brazil accounts for about 6.9% of GDP and is heavily exposed to climate risks. Despite its economic relevance, the effects of adverse climatic events on agricultural insurance claims are not well understood. This paper assesses the effects of climatic variables on direct claims in agricultural insurance, using spatial econometrics models with panel data. Official data from the Brazilian insurance market and meteorological measurements, monthly from Jan/2006 to Aug/2023, are used, totaling 5,460 observations from 26 Brazilian states. All estimated spatial models consistently show that climatic variables are strongly associated with claims. Specifically, precipitation does not have a significant direct effect, only when it simultaneously affects multiple neighboring areas (e.g., floods and inundations). Wind strength and humidity (a key indicator of droughts when low, and frost when high and coupled with low temperatures) are relevant factors for explaining claims. Additionally, there is concentration of premiums issued in the South and Southeast regions, suggesting potential geographical concentration risks. The findings can assist (re)insurers in diversifying and pricing portfolios. They also offer support to farmers and policymakers in mitigating losses and allocating resources more effectively.
Copyright (c) 2025 João Vinícius França Carvalho, Nathalia Costa Fonseca, Daniel Bagatini https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Can mom or dad give me an allowance?” An analysis of financialliteracy in PISA 2018 based on the effect of receiving an allowance
One of the ways in which students receive money is through allowances. This mechanism represents a means by which parents reward their children for good behavior, enabling young people to manage money in order to cover extraordinary expenses or, alternatively, to receive an unconditional gift. In this context, this article investigates the effect of such practice using different matching models: Propensity Score Matching (PSM), Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting (IPTW), Entropy Balancing, and Mahalanobis Distance combined with Regression Adjustment (RA), also known as the doubly robust approach, on the financial literacy of young people using data from the 2018 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). The results indicate that receiving an allowance is beneficial for all students when it is unconditional, as in the form of a gift, contributing to higher PISA financial literacy scores, particularly among boys, and thereby widening the gender gap in financial education. Furthermore, the study shows that when allowances are conditional, their effect turns negative, lowering the financial literacy scores of girls. A possible explanation lies in the reduced time available for studying, due to domestic responsibilities, which contributes to the decline in girls’ financial literacy performance.
Copyright (c) 2026 Ivana Carla Strapazzon, Marco Tulio Aniceto França, Gustavo Saraiva Frio https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Using uncertainty regional shocks to assess the relationship between Covid- 19 crisis and economic regional cycles in Brazil
We estimate the effects of COVID-19 on regional economic cycles through uncertainty shocks, using quarterly data (from 2007 to 2022) for 13 Brazilian federative units. The results point to heterogeneity in two ways: persistence of simulated shocks and output recovery speed. Consequently, we found evidence supporting the hypothesis of asymmetric reactions, a feature directly related to resilience over external idiosyncrasies. Therefore, our analysis indicates that the states that react less to external shocks are most likely to recover quickly compared to more susceptible regions.
Copyright (c) 2025 Michel Candido Souza, Jean Lucas Viana Almeida, Otávio Florentino Detoni https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Between the base and the top: Brazil according to Os ricos e ospobres, by Marcelo Medeiros
Marcelo Medeiros’s new book combines an accessible synthesis of contemporary research on income and wealth inequality in Brazil with a defense of a particular view on its nature and how to tackle it. His argument unfolds in two steps. Medeiros argues that describing inequality entails normative commitments and, in the case of Brazil, puts forward a dichotomous perspective. In this view, one side comprises a largely homogeneous mass of extremely poor and vulnerable people; the other, a small but heterogeneous group of the rich, some much richer than others. The second step is to draw from this diagnosis a set of controversial policy prescriptions: targeted programs would not be enough to tackle poverty, and education would have limited effects on reducing inequality. In this review, I place Os ricos e os pobres within the literature on inequality and discuss some of the tensions in how Medeiros bridges diagnosis and policies.
Copyright (c) 2025 Samuel Sousa de Azevedo Maia https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Regional drivers of green technological competences in Brazil
This paper analyzes the determinants of green technological competences based on patent data across Brazilian regions between 2000 and 2020, focusing on the influence of green employment and specialization in natural resource-based sectors. Conditional and unconditional quantile regression approaches are employed to capture regional heterogeneity across the distribution of technological performance. The results indicate that the share of green employment is negatively and significantly associated with green technological competences at several points along the distribution, suggesting that such jobs tend to be concentrated in low-tech activities. In turn, natural natural-resource based sectors show positive effects at specific quantiles which indicates that, under certain conditions, a natural resource-based economy can stimulate environmental innovation. However, these effects are not generalized, highlighting the importance of public policies and institutional arrangements that support productive transformation and the strengthening of local technological capabilities.
Copyright (c) 2026 Ludmilla Rodrigues Costa Gonçalves, Eduardo Gonçalves, Rosa Livia Gonçalves Montenegro https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Adjustment through revenue or spending? Fiscal adjustment scenarios based on estimated multiplier effects
This paper contributes to the literature on fiscal multipliers by estimating the effects of changes in revenue and in five groups of expenditures: public investment, social benefits, subsidies, personnel expenses, and other expenditures. We find that the strongest effects arise from shocks on public investments and social benefits, with both having a positive correlation with the sign of the shock. Increases in revenues, on the other hand, have statistically significant negative effects only in the short-run. The paper estimates the effects on GDP, primary balance, and public indebtedness of different fiscal consolidation scenarios. Results indicate that it is possible to combine reductions in the public indebtedness-to-GDP ratio with increases in GDP with a rebalancing of fiscal policy towards public investment and social spending and away from subsidies.
Copyright (c) 2026 Hiaman Rodrigues Silva Santos, Marina da Silva Sanches, Guilherme Klein Martins
Transportation infrastructure and University-Industry collaborations: regional-level evidence from Brazil
It is widely known that universities have played a major role in fostering innovation at the firm level. A large body of literature has identified that knowledge spillovers are bound in space. Thus, an adequate transportation infrastructure may amplify potential knowledge spillovers by connecting places and promoting learning and knowledge diffusion. In this work, we examine the impact of an increase in roads provisioning on U-I linkages in Brazil using instrumental variables econometric models to account for possible endogeneity issues. Our results suggest that highways positively impact U-I interactions. These results remain stable under several specifications. We show that the effects of roads on local U-I collaborations are greater for small-sized= firms and research groups, higher-quality research groups and leading micro regions. Also, we find a negatively signed spatial effect of roads on U-I linkages, thus suggesting that the road network may be spatially concentrating knowledge flows in Brazil.
Copyright (c) 2025 Alexandre de Queiroz Stein; Ulisses Pereira dos Santos; Victor Medeiros, Rafael Saulo Marques Ribeiro https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Evolution of returns to schooling in Brazil
In this paper, we estimate the returns to schooling in Brazil from 1995 to 2023, using data from the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) and the Continuous PNAD (PNADC). The results show a reduction in wage returns to schooling, particularly among workers with lower educational attainment. This declining trend is attributed to two main determinants: (i) the quality of the educational system; and (ii) the expansion of the supply of skilled labor, which led to market saturation and inefficient worker allocation, where less-educated workers were at least partially replaced by more educated workers in similar occupations.
Copyright (c) 2025 Marcos Júnio Ribeiro, Luciano Nakabashi, Fernando Antônio Barros Jr https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Modeling how macroeconomic shocks affect regional employment: analyzing the brazilian formal labor market using the global VAR approach
Using a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) framework that addresses the curse of dimensionality, we assess linkages between regions and examine how macroeconomic shocks spread across them. This study examines the Brazilian labor market by identifying and quantifying the regional and temporal propagation of shocks in aggregate economic activity. A key innovation is our use of data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics to measure regional linkages by analyzing the infrastructure connections of Brazilian municipalities. We capture regional interdependence by incorporating both economic and infrastructure connections. Our findings indicate that macroeconomic shocks have a particularly strong effect in Brazil’s South, Southeast, and Midwest regions.
Copyright (c) 2026 Bruno Barbosa, Emerson Marçal, Pedro Luiz Valls Pereira
Food price shocks and food security: evidence for Brazilian households
Brazil has been presenting over the last years a reversal on the downward trend observed over the last decades on food and nutritional insecurity. Moreover, the country has been seeing a rise in food prices since 2007. Since these prices might be important determinants of food security, this paper evaluates the impacts of the food prices on food security and on the ratio of food expenses on processed and ultra processed items in relation to the total food expenses of the households of metropolitan Brazil. In addition, we also explored the possibility of heterogenous effects according to the income per capita of households. As a measure of food security, we use the EBIA provided by POF 2017-2018, which is our data source. We estimate the impact of food prices on different levels of food insecurity by estimating an ordered probit. For the second outcome (the proportion of food expenditure due to processed and ultra processed food items), we run an OLS model. Our results suggest that rises in food prices indeed tend to reduce the chances of achieving better levels of food security in Brazil. We also found that as food prices increase, households tend to reduce their expenditure on processed and ultra processed food items. Poorer households tend to be less sensitive to the variation of food prices in relation to their chances of being on food security, although these prices elevate more their chances of severe food insecurity in relation to the households with higher income per capita. Finally, we also found that the relative expenditure on processed food decreases more for the richer households.
Copyright (c) 2025 Aline Caroline Rodrigues, Maritza Rosales, Lorena Vieira Costa https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Bullying and suicidal ideation among school-aged adolescents inBrazil
This study aimed to analyze the relationship between bullying and suicidal ideation among school-aged adolescents in Brazil, controlling for specific factors related to individuals, family and friends, school, diet and physical activities, as well as the use of tobacco, alcohol, and drugs, and regional and economic characteristics. Data from the National School Health Survey (PeNSE, 2019) were used, estimating models through the ordered probit method. It was found that bullying can be considered an associated factor for suicidal ideation in both urban and rural areas. The predisposition to develop suicidal ideation is greater among girls, in capitals, and in urban areas. Among the reasons for engaging in bullying, sexual orientation stands out. In this regard, evidence suggests that a positive school environment, with greater attention and a lower incidence of intimidating practices, is a protective factor and, consequently, mitigates the effects of bullying on the mental health of young individuals.
Copyright (c) 2025 Rafael de Sousa Araújo, Adelson Santos da Silva, Maria Micheliana da Costa Silva https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Structural heterogeneity and informality in Brazil: productivity by sector of production in the 2010s
The role of the production sectors (formal/informal) and their economic activities is investigated in accordance with international recommendations and within the System of National Accounts production frontier. The formal and informal sectors are investigated from the perspective of production, and not from the usual perspective of occupation. Firstly, the value added, occupations and labor productivity in Brazil are estimated in the period 2010 to 2019 (and in subperiods). Subsequently, aggregate productivity growth rate is decomposed from the methodology proposed by Diewert (2015), which explicitly deals with changes in relative prices. The analysis disregards activities with a high share of non-market and/or imputed production so as not to bias productivity dynamics, although results are also compared considering all activities in the economy. The results indicated that about 44% of occupation are outside the formal sector and that such activities generate less than 21% of the total value-added. There was great productive heterogeneity both between sectors of production and within each one of them. Changes in occupations and productivity in the formal and informal segments of economy were presented as an important sources in explaining the evolution of the low dynamism of aggregate productivity.
Copyright (c) 2025 Tomás Amaral Torezani https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
The brazilian daylight daving time as a public policy for energy efficiency
This work aims to analyze the possible diseconomies of electricity energy induced by the end of daylight saving time in 2019. The series of electrical energy load observations for the Southeast/Midwest subsystem for each hour of the day is considered a dependent variable in multiple linear regression models. The explanatory variables mainly relate to meteorological attributes (temperature), periodicities associated with electricity consumption (daily, weekly, and annual), and economic activity. The research is based on data from the ONS (National System Operator), INMET (National Institute of Meteorology), and IPEA (Institute for Applied Economic Research) from 2017 to 2021. Daylight saving time positively impacted the reduction of consumption around the evening twilight and increased energy consumption in the late dawn and early morning. However, the net balance throughout the day is, on average, 4,976.81 MWh, corresponding to 13.47% of the power required in the Southeast/Midwest Brazilian Interconnected Power System for the 6 p.m. It is worth mentioning that around the evening twilight, the electrical system works with high load requirements.
Copyright (c) 2025 Lucélia Viviane Vaz Raad, Tales Siqueira da Cruz, Renata Lúcia Magalhães de Oliveira https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Impact of Criatec funds on the growth and innovation of startups: an analysis based on event studies
Startups are young, small-sized companies characterized by being research and development (R&D) intensive, but due to the nature of these activities, they are subject to information asymmetries and externalities, which often leads to credit constraints. In this sense, Criatec funds are venture capital mutual funds operated by BNDES that aim to promote the growth and incentivize the innovation activities of these companies through their capitalization. This article aims to assess the impact of Criatec on the supported startups, being the first work to provide evidence on the effectiveness of a seed capital fund in Brazil. The methodology used was based on the staggered difference-in differences model, or event study, according to procedures proposed by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021). The results showed that Criatec had significant impacts on the supported startups, with effects of 61% on employment, 275% on wage mass, 21% on personnel engaged in R&D, and 10% on patent applications. The program’s effects remained for several years after the initial injection of resources, being stronger in younger companies and varying according to the economic sector.
Copyright (c) 2024 Ricardo Agostini Martini, Luciano Machado, Leandro Ortiz do Nascimento https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Demographic dimensions of wage disparities a stochastic frontier approach to labor market in São Paulo City (Brazil)
This study investigates wage disparities for 6.34 million workers from São Paulo city (Brazil) during the years 2018 to 2020 using Stochastic Frontier methods to estimate changes in the underpayment levels across demographic dimensions. The results indicate that closing the underpayment gap has the potential to yield an average salary increase of 1.12 times, with a range spanning from 1.02 to 4.82 times within the sample. Additionally, the results underscore lower levels of underpayment among white and male workers, while migrant workers and those with reported disabilities tend to experience higher levels of underpayment. Further-more, the study unveils a trend of decreasing potential wages over time, marked by a sharp -19.34% reduction in 2020, primarily attributed to the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. Simultaneously, there is a notable reduction in the average underpayment, with a substantial decline occurring in 2019. In conclusion, this research advances the existing literature by uti-lizing Stochastic Frontier models to assess underpayment and provides valuable insights into the intricate dynamics of wage disparities — a critical issue that plays a pivotal role in fostering socioeconomic development.
Copyright (c) 2025 Leonardo Puehler, André Felipe Danelon https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
The effect of economic complexity and relatedness on the economic growth of brazilian microregions
This paper examines the effects of economic complexity and relatedness (proximity of productive knowledge) on the economic growth of Brazilian microregions. The perspective of economic complexity suggests that countries advancing in terms of productive sophistication and relatedness tend to achieve higher levels of income and economic growth. Additionally, regional-level analyses have consistently contributed to the growing body of evidence supporting this assertion. We employed dynamic spatial econometric models (SDM, SDGMM-SYS, and SDGMM-DIF) across 558 Brazilian microregions, utilizing employment data for 59 economic activities from 2002 to 2020. Our findings suggest that, firstly, an increased level of economic complexity in microregions is associated with a higher GDP per capita. Secondly, the density around industries (relatedness density) positively affects GDP per capita. Thirdly, and most importantly, our analysis reveals that economic complexity has unequal effects on the economic growth of microregions when examining distinct major Brazilian regions, particularly concerning per capita GDP. A lack of empirical evidence exists regarding the effects of relatedness and economic complexity on regional growth in Brazil, with issues of endogeneity and spatial dependence often overlooked. Our study addresses this gap by providing new insights into the effects of economic complexity and relatedness on regional growth, as well as the varying effects among Brazilian regions. Understanding these processes aids in formulating strategic interventions to promote economic complexity, relatedness, and regional economic growth.
Copyright (c) 2024 Felipe Micail da Silva Smolski, Janaína Ruffoni, Suelene Mascarini https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
The brazilian experience on estimating consistent interregional systems, the SUIT and IIOAS methodologies compared
In Brazil, as in many other countries, there is no official data on trade flows between subnational regions. Therefore, the estimation of inter-regional input-output systems, under conditions of limited information, has been the subject of researchers at the University of São Paulo Regional and Urban Economics Lab - NEREUS for over two decades. During this span, they have developed two distinctive estimation methods: Supply and Use Interregional Tables (SUIT) and Interregional Input Output Adjustment Systems (IIOAS). This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of these two methods, which were employed to estimate an interregional system encompassing the 27 states within the Brazilian economy. Following the exposition of SUIT and IIOAS methods, a comparative analysis is conducted to delineate their main similarities and differences, in both holistic and partitive terms. The findings underscore that, despite notable differences, particularly in partitive terms, the choice between these two methods generally does not compromise the overall results of structural input-output analysis. Furthermore, this study represents a contribution to the literature, as both SUIT and IIOAS can be applied in the estimation of interregional input-output systems for any country that discloses its Supply and Use Tables and possesses some subnational information for regionalization.
Copyright (c) 2024 Carlos Alberto Gonçalves Júnior, Joaquim José Martins Guilhoto https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Impact of macroeconomic conditions on presidential approval rating
This paper investigates the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and presidential approval ratings in Brazil spanning from 1996 to 2023. Employing the Two Stage Least Squares technique of instrumental variables estimation to mitigate endogeneity issues within domestic macroeconomic indicators, the study explores the impact of the output gap, food inflation, real exchange rate and terms of trade on presidential approval. Controlling for each president’s term and major political developments in the country, the analysis reveals statistically significant relationships between these macroeconomic factors and presidential approval, underscoring the profound link between the economy and the success of an incumbent administration.
Copyright (c) 2025 Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, Matheus Rodrigues https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Dynamic connectedness and volatility spillover in the Brazilian agricultural market after the Covid-19 pandemic
Agricultural commodities price volatilities experienced an increase in the period of 2006 2008 and since then, the shocks from the global crises have been affecting these markets, as the Covid-19 pandemic period. Many studies have evaluated volatility spillovers around agricultural markets by focusing on crises cycles. However, few of these studies focus on emerging markets. This study examines the impacts of the Covid 19 pandemic on Brazilian agricultural price volatility. This study also considers the USD/BRL exchange rate and crude oil prices. We examine the volatility spillover effects and dynamic connectedness among the markets. A TVP-VAR model was applied, considering the specifications proposed by Antonakakis et al. (2020). The results indicate an increase in volatility connectedness after the Covid-19 outbreak, where volatility transmission affected all markets domestically. These effects were still significant after the Russia Ukraine conflict and dissipated from mid-2022 onwards. Overall, the exchange rate and soybean were the largest net transmitters during the pre- and post-Covid-19 pandemic, and corn was a net receiver. Crude oil had a significant transmission effect after a short period after the Covid-19 outbreak and the Russia-Ukraine war. Additionally, wheat was a significant volatility receiver after the Russia-Ukraine conflict and rice was a net transmitter during the Covid-19 pandemic. These findings corroborate that the crises cycles also affect Brazil but highlight that in the context of an emerging market, the exchange rate is more important in explaining agricultural price dynamics than crude oil.
Copyright (c) 2024 Daniel Henrique Dario Capitani, Luiz Eduardo Gaio https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Analysis of increasing competition in the civil aviation market with aview to consumer well-being
The Brazilian civil aviation sector has unique characteristics compared to other economic sectors, including a distinct regulatory framework. Among the responsibilities of the National Civil Aviation Agency (ANAC) is the allocation of slots, which are time windows allocated for takeoff or landing operations at airports. This study examines whether a less concentrated distribution of slots, promoting greater competition, can reduce airfare prices, increase the number of passengers, and optimize the distribution of the Brazilian air network. Using an econometric fixed-effects model accounting for month, year, and operator, the impact of slot concentration, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), on prices and passenger numbers was evaluated. The findings indicate that higher slot concentration among incumbent operators is associated with increased average fares and a decrease in the number of passengers transported, which is undesirable.
Copyright (c) 2025 José Bento Carlos Amaral Amaral Júnior, Renan Gomes De Pieri, Joelson Oliveira Úbida Sampaio, Murillo Toda, Pierre Oberson Souza https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Critical realism and economics post-keynesianism and ontology in Kregel's method
Starting from a realistic perspective of the economic dynamics of capitalist society, after an analysis of the theses of critical realism in science, especially in the works of Roy Bhaskar and Tony Lawson, the argument that within post-Keynesian heterodox thinking there is a return to ontology, which makes it possible to draw a theoretical framework that is more consistent with the reality of the economic environment. To illustrate, we bring to light the contribution of Jan Kregel, which shows a certain approximation with the methodological proposal of critical realism, especially with regard to ideas about changes in trajectory, cumulative causation, subjectivity, uncertainty and economic unpredictability.
Copyright (c) 2024 Vinícius Vieira Pereira https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Octávio Bulhões and the monetary tax: the history of an idea
This article is a study on the idea of the monetary tax, an instrument proposed by Octávio Bulhões to be managed by the monetary authority for controlling inflation in Brazil. The main motivation lies in the existence of inflation hotspots, which would be more effectively addressed through targeted instruments like the monetary tax rather than general restrictive policies. We point out that Bulhões submitted the idea to the evaluation of foreign economists, who did not support it. Nevertheless, he continued to advocate for it for decades, even asserting that a central bank should only be established in Brazil if equipped with this instrument. The article explores how Bulhões, during his tenure as Minister of Finance, attempted to implement it in the 1965 tax reform through exports and financial transactions taxes, designed to complement monetary policy. In doing so, we also offer a contribution to the history of the Brazilian tax system. It is argued that this idea represents an effort within Brazilian economic thought to develop viable alternatives for controlling inflation.
Copyright (c) 2025 Marcelo Lourenço-Filho https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Evolution of the annual human capital index for the brazilian economy: 1995-2022
In this paper, we construct the Human Capital Index (ICH) for Brazil, covering the period from 1995 to 2022. We used microdata from National Household Sample Surver (PNAD) and PNAD Contínua, both made available by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). We adapted the methodology used by several international organizations, such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The ICH captures structural movements in the quality of the Brazilian workforce, given the wide temporal range of the data, and its derivation is compatible with the usual methodology for decomposing economic growth. We thus used the ICH to adjust the labor factor in the total factor productivity (TFP) calculation. The results show that ICH presented an average annual growth of 2.2% between 1995 and 2022. In addition, the inclusion of the ICH influenced the TFP dynamics, which registered an average annual drop of 0.9% in the analyzed period.
Copyright (c) 2024 Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/