Os efeitos do Programa Bolsa Família(PBF) no mercado de trabalho: uma análise com Causal Forest
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575625rrsPalavras-chave:
Programa Bolsa Família (PBF), Causal Forest, Heterogeneidade dos efeitosResumo
Este estudo investiga o impacto do Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) em três desfechos: a probabilidade de estar empregado, a probabilidade de ter carteira de trabalho assinada e a quantidade de horas trabalhadas. Utilizando o método Causal Forest e dados do segundo trimestre de 2023 da PNAD Contínua, os resultados mostram que beneficiários do PBF têm menor probabilidade de estar empregados, especialmente em empregos formais, e trabalham menos horas semanalmente. Os efeitos variam entre grupos. Mulheres, indivíduos com 30 anos ou mais e residentes urbanos são os mais afetados, com maiores reduções na formalização e nas horas trabalhadas.
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Atualizado em 30/01/2026