Fatores relacionados às expectativas de estudantes secundários de concluir estudos universitários na Argentina e no Chile
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/S1678-4634202652294997enPalabras clave:
Educational expectations, Higher Education, Related factors, Argentina, ChileResumen
This paper uses micro-data from the PISA 2022 Assessment Programme to study the factors related to secondary school students’ expectations of completing university studies in Argentina and Chile. We estimate a logistic regression model on the probability of having expectations of completing university studies in each country. The results show that, despite the differences between the two higher educational systems, factors such as gender, the socioeconomic level of the student, their parents’ education, his/her educational attainment, and the type of school attended (public or private) influence, in the same direction, youths‘ expectations regarding university studies. However, there are significant differences in the magnitude of the effects of some variables in the countries analysed. In particular, the expectations of middle and high-class students compared to those from lower class are higher in Argentina than in Chile. The results could be a consequence, on the one hand, that lower-income secondary school students in Argentina have reduced chances of graduation than lower-income secondary school students in Chile. On the other hand, despite the access and financial barriers present in Chilean higher education, the chances of graduation are greater than in Argentina. Note that while access to public higher education is open and tuition-free in Argentina, in Chile, a free tuition policy has been introduced for lower-income groups, and some private sector institutions have lower barriers to entry than the most selective group of public and private institutions.
Descargas
Referencias
ALI, Jibril et al.. Accounting for educational expectations and achievement among native and migrant students in Qatar. International Studies in Sociology of Education, London, v. 3, n. 2, p. 1-20, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1080/09620214.2022.2034518.
ANDREW, Megan; FLASHMAN, Jennifer. School transitions, peer influence, and educational expectation formation: Girls and boys. Social Science Research, Ámsterdam, n. 61, p. 218-233, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2016.06.016.
BOURDIEU, Pierre. Le capital social: notes provisoires. Actes de la Recherche en Sciences Sociales, París, v. 31, n. 1, p. 2-3, 1980.
BOURDIEU, Pierre; PASSERON, Jean-Claude. The inheritors: French students and their relation to culture. Chicago: Chicago University Press, 1979.
BREEN, Richard; GOLDTHORPE, John. Explaining educational differentials towards a formal rational action theory. Rationality and Society, London, v. 9, n. 3, p. 275-305, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1177/104346397009003002.
BUENOS AIRES. Ministry of Education. Anuario Estadístico Educativo 2022. Buenos Aires: ME, 2024a.
BUENOS AIRES. Ministry of Education. Información universitaria: Anuario 2022. Buenos Aires: ME, 2024b.
CABRERA, Alberto; LA NASA, Steven. Three critical tasks America's disadvantaged face on their path to college. New Directions for Institutional Research, San Francisco, n. 107, p. 23-29, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1002/ir.10702.
CASTRO, Jordan et al.. ¿Cómo influye el conocimiento del retorno económico en las aspiraciones educativas? Evidencia de un experimento en Ecuador. Revista Mbote, Salvador, v. 2, n. 1, p. 33-44, jan./jun. 2021. Disponível em: Disponível em: https://www.revistas.uneb.br/index.php/mbote/index Acesso em: 25 fev. 2026.
» https://www.revistas.uneb.br/index.php/mbote/index
CHESTERS, Jenny. Maintaining inequality despite expansion: evidence of the link between parents' education and qualitative differences in educational attainment. Higher Education Quarterly, London, v. 69, n. 2, p. 138-157, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1111/hequ.12060.
CHILE. Gratuidad educación superior. Santiago de Chile: Mineduc, 2021.
CHOI, Álvaro. De padres a hijos: expectativas y rendimiento académico en España. Presupuesto y Gasto Público, Madrid, v. 90, p. 13-31, 2018.
CHRISTOFIDES, Louis N. et al.. Grades, aspirations, and postsecondary education outcomes. Canadian Journal of Higher Education, Toronto, v. 45, n. 1, p. 48-82, 2015. https://doi.org/10.47678/cjhe.v45i1.184203.
COSTA RIBEIRO, Carlos Antonio. Desigualdade de oportunidades e resultados educacionais no Brasil. Dados: Revista de Ciências Sociais, Rio de Janeiro, v. 54, n. 1, p. 41-87, 2011.
ELIAS ANDREU, Marina; DAZA PÉREZ, Lidia. ¿Cómo deciden los jóvenes la transición a la educación postobligatoria? Diferencias entre centros públicos y privados-concertados. Revista de la Asociación de Sociología de la Educación, Madrid, v. 10, n. 1, p. 5-22, 2017. https://doi.org/10.7203/RASE.10.1.9135.
ELIAS ANDREU, Marina; DAZA PÉREZ, Lidia. Configuración y reconfiguración de las expectativas educativas después de la educación obligatoria: un análisis longitudinal. International Journal of Sociology of Education, Barcelona, v. 8, n. 3, p. 206-235, 2019. https://doi.org/10.17583/rise.2019.4479.
ESPINOZA, Oscar et al.. Reducing inequality in access to university in Chile: the relative contribution of cultural capital and financial aid. Higher Education, Dordrecht, v. 83, p. 1355-1370, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-021-00746-z.
FOSTER, Renata; HEATON, Tim; HAAS, David. Adolescents' expectations for higher education in Bogotá, Colombia, and La Paz, Bolivia. Youth & Society, Michigan, v. 36, n. 1, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1177/0044118X03260762.
GANTIER, Marcelo; NOVELLA, Rafael; REPETTO, Andrea. Subjective expectations and schooling choices in Latin America and the Caribbean. Journal of International Development, Oxford, v. 36, n. 3, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3872.
GOLDTHORPE, John H.. Class analysis and the reorientation of class theory: the case of persisting differentials in educational attainment. The British Journal of Sociology, London, v. 61, p. 311-335, 2010.
GROISMAN, Fernando. Estructura social e informalidad laboral en Argentina. Buenos Aires: Eudeba, 2016. Disponível em: Disponível em: http://core.cambeiro.com.ar/0-166170-13.pdf Acesso em: 25 fev. 2026.
» http://core.cambeiro.com.ar/0-166170-13.pdf
GUZMÁN-VALENZUELA, Carolina et al.. (Un)Limited choice: analysing the strategic choices of first-in-generation students in neoliberal higher education. British Journal of Sociology of Education, London, v. 43, n. 6, p. 930-949, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1080/01425692.2022.2080045.
HAO, Lingxin; BONSTEAD-BURNS, Melissa. Parent-child differences in educational expectations and the academic achievement of immigrant and native students. Sociology of Education, Washington, D.C, v. 71, n. 3, p. 175-198, 1998. https://doi.org/10.2307/2673201.
HILLMAN, Kylie. PISA Australia in Focus Number 2: educational expectations. Camberwell: Australian Council for Educational Research, 2018. Disponível em: Disponível em: https://research.acer.edu.au/ozpisa/31 Acesso em: 25 fev. 2026.
» https://research.acer.edu.au/ozpisa/31
JACOB, Brian; WILDER, Tamara. Educational expectations and attainment. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2010. (NBER working paper; 15683). https://doi.org/10.3386/w15683.
KEUNG, Chrysa Pui Chi; HO, Esther Sui Chu. Structure and agency in adolescents' expectations of pursuing post-secondary. Research in Higher Education, Dordrecht, v. 61, p. 270-295, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-019-09574-81.
LUCAS, Samuel. An archaeology of effectively maintained inequality theory. American Behavioral Scientist, New York, v. 61, n. 1, p. 8-29, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764216682989.
LUCAS, Samuel. Effectively maintained inequality: education transitions, track mobility and social background effects. American Journal of Sociology, Chicago, v. 106, n. 6, p. 1642-1690, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1086/321300.
MENON, Maria Eliophotou et al.. Influences on the intention to enter higher education: the importance of expected returns. Journal of Further and Higher Education, London, v. 41, n. 6, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1080/0309877X.2016.1188897.
MIZE, Trenton; DOAN, Long; LONG, Scott. A general framework for comparing predictions and marginal effects across models. Sociological Methodology, Thousand Oaks, v. 49, n. 1, p. 152-189, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1177/0081175019852763.
OECD. Career readiness in the pandemic: insights from new international research for secondary schools. OECD Education Policy Perspectives, París, n. 44, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1787/5cc2d673-en.
OECD. Students' expectations of further education: PISA 2015 results: students' well-being. v. 3. París: OECD, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264273856-10-en.
OU, Suh-Ruu; REYNOLDS, Arthur R.. Predictors of educational attainment in the Chicago Longitudinal Study. School Psychology Quarterly, Washington, D.C., v. 23, n. 2, p. 199-229, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1037/1045-3830.23.2.199.
PASCARELLA, Ernest et al.. First-generation college students: additional evidence on college experiences and outcomes. Journal of Higher Education, Columbus, v. 75, n. 3, p. 249-284, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1080/00221546.2004.11772256.
QUARESMA, María Luisa; VILLALOBOS, Cristóbal. Elite universities in Chile: between social mobility and reproduction of inequality. Tuning Journal for Higher Education, Groningen, v. 9, n. 2, p. 29-62, 2022. https://doi.org/10.18543/tjhe.1920.
RAFTERY, Adrián; HOUT, Michael. Maximally maintained inequality: expansion, reform, and opportunity in Irish education, 1921-75. Sociology of Education, Indiana, v. 66, p. 41-62, 1993. https://doi.org/10.2307/2112784.
SALAZAR, José Miguel; LEIHY, Pedro. La era del vértigo: la educación superior chilena en tiempos de cambio (2018-2022). In: BRUNNER, José Joaquín (ed.). Informe de educación superior en Iberoamérica. Santiago de Chile: Cinda, 2024. p. 208-221.
TERENZINI, Patrick; CABRERA, Alberto F.; BERNAL, Elena. Swimming against the tide: the poor in American higher education. New York: College Entrance Examination Board, 2001.
TRIVENTI, Moris et al.. Advantage 'finds its way': how privileged families exploit opportunities in different systems of secondary education. Sociology, London, v. 54, n. 2, p. 237-257, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1177/0038038519874984.
TROW, Martin. Reflection on the transition from elite to mass to universal access: forms and phases of higher education in modern societies since WWII. In: FOREST, James F.; ALTBACH, Phillip G. (ed.). International handbook of higher education. Dordrecht: Springer, 2006. p. 243-280. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-4012-2_13.
VALDÉS FERNÁNDEZ, Manuel. Efectos primarios y secundarios en la expectativa de matriculación universitaria: la desigualdad como reto del siglo XXI. Revista Prisma Social, Madrid, v. 25, p. 332-358, 2019.
VALDÉS FERNÁNDEZ, Manuel. The evolution of educational expectations in Spain (2003-2018): an analysis of social inequality using PISA. International Journal of Sociology of Education, Barcelona, v. 10, n. 1, p. 82-113, 2021. https://doi.org/10.17583/rise.2020.6413.
VAN DE WERFHORST, Herman; HOFSTEDE, Saskia. Cultural capital or relative risk aversion? Two mechanisms for educational inequality compared. The British Journal of Sociology, London, v. 58, n. 3, p. 391-415, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-4446.2007.00157.x.
VILLALOBOS, Cristóbal; QUARESMA, María Luisa; FRANETOVIC, Gonzalo. Mapeando a la élite en las universidades chilenas. Un análisis cuantitativo multidimensional. Revista Española de Sociología (RES), Madrid, 2020. https://doi.org/10.22325/fes/res.2020.33.
ZAPATA, Gonzalo; TEJEDA, Ivo. Informe nacional: Chile, 2016. Santiago de Chile: Centro Interuniversitario de Desarrollo-Universia, 2016.
Descargas
Publicado
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2026 Educação e Pesquisa

Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
Los conceptos emitidos en los artículos son de exclusiva responsabilidad de sus autores y no reflejan necesariamente la opinión de la redacción.
Está permitida la reproducción total o parcial de los trabajos, siempre y cuando se indique explícitamente la fuente.