Proposição de um Método para Estimar Razões Geomorfológicas em Bacias Hidrográficas: Redução de Incertezas por meio da Dispersão dos Parâmetros Morfométricos
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.2316-9095.v25-207054Palavras-chave:
Razões geomorfológicas, Hidrograma unitário instantâneo, Incerteza, Regressão não linear, Bacia hidrográficaResumo
A modelagem hidrológica de bacias hidrográficas de pequeno e médio porte frequentemente depende da estimativa de razões geomorfológicas, fundamentais para parametrizações de modelos como o Hidrograma Unitário Instantâneo Geomorfológico (HUIG). No entanto, os métodos tradicionais de estimativa baseiam-se em médias agregadas, desconsiderando a dispersão natural dos dados morfométricos, o que pode induzir a incertezas significativas. Este estudo propõe um novo método para estimar razões geomorfológicas, incorporando a dispersão dos dados ao ajuste de regressão, o que proporciona maior representatividade física e estatística. Foram analisadas quatorze bacias hidrográficas com diferentes características fisiográficas, comparando-se três métodos de estimativa: média aritmética simples (Método 1), regressão sobre médias agregada por ordem (Método 2) e regressão sobre os dados dispersos (Método 3). Os resultados demonstram que o Método 3 reduz a incerteza nas estimativas de RL e RA, mantendo robustez estatística, especialmente em bacias com alta variabilidade morfométrica. Conclui-se que o método proposto é mais adequado para representar a complexidade das bacias e pode melhorar significativamente a performance de modelos hidrológicos que utilizam razões geomorfológicas como entrada.
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