Spatial distribution models for the Micrurus divaricatus complex (Serpentes: Elapidae) in Nuclear Central America with emphasis on Honduras
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.2316-9079.v24i2p175-200Keywords:
Micrurus divaricatus complex, Nuclear Central America, Species distribution modelsAbstract
This study modeled the distribution of the M. divaricatus complex in Nuclear Central America (NCA) by testing multiple modeling techniques and identifying crucial bioclimatic predictors. We used 178 occurrence records and seven variables selected for ecological relevance and low collinearity. Validating the eight techniques using AUC, TSS, Cohen’s Kappa, sensitivity, specificity, COR, and CA. Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, Generalized Additive Models, and Maximum Entropy Modeling performed best, with Random Forest showing the highest predictive accuracy. Main predictors were temperature seasonality, precipitation of the driest month, and precipitation seasonality. Projections indicated high suitability along the Pacific and Caribbean slopes and in parts of the Mosquitia, and low suitability in the Chortís Block highlands. Lowland and premontane moist forests were identified as critical habitats. The Chortís Block highlands represent a transitional zone for the three subspecies. These results, obtained via a multi-model approach to reduce uncertainty, provide relevant insights for taxonomy and conservation planning of the M. divaricatus complex and the genus Micrurus in NCA.
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