Um modelo probabilístico para estimar a demanda de atividade de lazer

Resumo

All available evidence indicates that the demand for tourism and recreation is this country is increasing and will continue to increasing much more in the coming years. As leisure use of natural resources contines to increase, its importance becomes more to decision makers responsible for public and private allocation. Estimates of consumer demand and associated resource values are basic to this decision process. This study attempts to formulate a probabilistic model to be used in estimating and projecting consumer use of leisure and tourist facilities. Specifically, the objectives were: (1) to develop a conceptual model which permits estimates ofprobable tourist use of a given facility or site; (2) To apply the conceptual model to empirical data for the purpose of comparing actual and model predicted visitation rates for camping in the State of Sao Paulo; (c) To illustrate the application of the probabilistic analysis in the development of statistical demand estimates for camping. The model development is intendend for general problems of estimating many types of tourist resource use. Camping is used in the analysis to explore the applicability and operation of the model.