Cash flow at risk in non-financial companies

Abstract

The main goal of this researsch is to study of the utilization of Cash Flow at Risk - CFaR. CFaR is a market risk assessing tool that is intended to simulate the value at risk of a future cash flow, operational and financial, given a confidence interval. The main idea is to present CFaR model applied to a non-financial company from the electrical sector, where either the rates and indexes of its financial assets and liabilities as well the demand for its services can be assumed random variables, in a process of statistical modeling for measurement of its cash flow's likely range of variation in the following fiscal year. A one-period back-test is preformed at the conclusion chapter, showing that the real figures are within the range defined by the model, creating opportunities for new studies about the subject.