Predictors of stay and drought in young athletes: a longitudinal retrospective approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.1981-4690.2025e39187668Keywords:
Features, Performance, Sport, CompetitionAbstract
The objective of the study was to compare socio-environmental, anthropometric, maturational, physical-motor, and specific characteristics from 213 athletes (97 men and 106 women) who, starting in the under-14/16 category, remained until the under-20 category, and to build a model able to predict the factors that lead to the permanence in the modality. Anthropometric, socio-environmental, and maturational measurements were obtained, and physical-motor and athletics-specific tests were applied. The coaches (N=21) indicated the sporting potential of each of their athletes. The results showed that athletes with more practice time, more victories in state or higher competitions and with sporting potential indicated as “very good” tend to remain in athletics. The men who remained in athletics presented the advanced maturational stage, lower sum of skinfolds, better VO2Máx, Squat Jump and RAST. For both sexes, among the specific skills, only the shot put for women showed no significant difference between those who dropped out and those who stayed. For men, the model had a sensitivity of 84.6% (correspondence of athletes who remained) and specificity (correctness of athletes who abandoned) of 90.5%. For women, the model had a sensitivity of 76.5% and specificity of 83.1%. The logistic model showed stronger predictive values of permanence for high potential athletes indicated by the coach for men and the level of victory achieved for women.
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