Financial constraints and development policies: evidence from Brazilian development bank loans
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x20262448.enPalabras clave:
targeted credit, development bank, subsidized credit, economic developmen, social developmentResumen
This study maps patterns of credit allocation by the Brazilian National Bank for Economic and Social Development (Banco
Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social [BNDES]) from 2002 to 2019, examining associations among firm
characteristics, regional disparities, and funding access. Previous research has mainly focused on listed firms or aggregate
measures, overlooking the broader business landscape. To address this, the paper assembles a granular dataset of 2,515
firms (1,537 beneficiaries and 978 non-beneficiaries), including both listed and private companies. Given BNDES’s systemic
weight, which historically accounts for over 15% of private credit and is tightly correlated with investment, understanding
its allocation is central to debates on market-failure correction and inclusive growth. The results reveal BNDES’s trade-offs:
funds reach disadvantaged regions and strategic sectors, yet systematically flow to firms able to provide collateral. This
challenges assumptions that public development banks primarily serve the most constrained firms and highlights tensions
between social objectives and financial sustainability. The study employs binary logistic models on a cross-sectional firmlevel sample, with explanatory variables including age, size, tangibility, liquidity, profitability, leverage, and dummies for
region, sector, listing, and group affiliation. A multinomial logistic model explores loan frequency, while propensity score
matching ensures robustness. BNDES lending shows clear regional and sectoral targeting: firms in the Northeast and utilities
are more likely to obtain credit. Beneficiaries tend to be older, more liquid, and more asset-tangible. The effects of firm size
are nuanced: smaller firms are more likely to access funds than larger ones, suggesting a risk-aware tilt within the bank’s
developmental mandate. This creates an “allocation paradox,” as support flows to priority regions and sectors but favors
lower-risk corporate profiles.
Descargas
Referencias
Almeida, H. T. V., & Braga, J. P. C. H. (2020). The Brazilian Development Bank impact thesis: A methodology to address the development goals of the knowledge and sustainable new economy. F. Matos, V. Vairinhos, I. Salavisa, L. Edvinsson, & M. Massaro (Eds.), Knowledge, people, and digital transformation. Contributions to management science. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-40390-4_16
Alti, A. (2003). How sensitive is investment to cash flow when financing is frictionless? The Journal of Finance, 58(2), 707-722. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6261.00542
Antunes, A., Cavalcanti, T., & Villamil, A. (2015). The effects of credit subsidies on development. Economic Theory, 58(1), 1-30. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-014-0808-0
Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social. (2018, October 19). Fato: A taxa de inadimplência do BNDES é inferior à do Sistema Financeiro Nacional. https://agenciadenoticias.bndes.gov.br/detalhe/fatoboato/Fato-A-taxa-de-inadimplencia-do-BNDES-e-inferior-a-do-Sistema-Financeiro-Nacional/
Banerjee, A. V., & Duflo, E. (2014). Do firms want to borrow more? Testing credit constraints using a directed lending program. The Review of Economic Studies, 81(2), 572-607. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdt046
Barboza R. M., Pessoa, S., Roitman, F., & Ribeiro, E. P. (2023). What have we learned about national development banks? Evidence from Brazil. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 43(3), 646-669. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572023-3467
Barboza, R. M., & Vasconcelos, G. F. R. (2019). Measuring the aggregate effects of the Brazilian Development Bank on investment. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 47, 223-236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2018.12.013
Bonomo, M., Brito, R. D., & Martins, B. (2015). The after crisis government-driven credit expansion in Brazil: A firm level analysis. Journal of International Money and Finance, 55, 111-134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.02.017
Campos, R. O. (1969). A retrospect over Brazilian development plans. In H. S. Ellis (Ed.), The economy of Brazil. University of California Press. https://doi.org/10.1525/9780520325906-017
Cavalcanti, T., & Vaz, P. H. (2017). Access to long-term credit and productivity of small and medium firms: A causal evidence. Economics Letters, 150, 21-25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.10.043
Cipoletta Tomassian, G., & Abdo, T. (2022). Development bank financing in the context of the COVID-19 crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. https://hdl.handle.net/11362/47882
Cull, R., Li, W., Sun, B., & Xu, L. C. (2015). Government connections and financial constraints: Evidence from a large representative sample of Chinese firms. Journal of Corporate Finance, 32, 271-294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2014.10.012
Ehrl, P., Pereira, G. A., & Zanchi, V. V. (2022). Lending and regional growth in Brazil: The development bank BNDES versus private and public banks. Estudos Econômicos, 52(3), 503-532. https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575232pgv
Fávero, L. P. L., & Belfiore, P. (2017). Manual de análise de dados: estatística e modelagem multivariada com Excel®, SPSS® e Stata®. Elsevier.
Frischtak, C., Pazarbasioglu, C., Byskov, S., Perez, A. H., & Carneiro, I. A. (2017). Towards a more effective BNDES. World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28398
Gomes, M. C., & Valle, M. R. (2023). Do companies that benefit from development banks’ funding invest more? New evidence from Brazil. Economic Modelling, 127, 106476. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106476
Griffith-Jones, S., Ocampo, J. A., Rezende, F., Schclarek, A., & Brei, M. (2018). The future of national development banks. In S. Griffith-Jones & J. A. Ocampo (Eds.), The future of national development banks, initiative for policy dialogue. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198827948.003.0001
Hadlock, C. J., & Pierce, J. R. (2010). New evidence on measuring financial constraints: Moving beyond the KZ index. The Review of Financial Studies, 23(5), 1909-1940. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhq009
Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (2023, June 28). Between 2010 and 2022, Brazilian population grows 6.5%, reaches 203.1 million. https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-news/2184-news-agency/news/37245-between-2010-and-2022-brazilian-population-grows-6-5-reaches-203-1-million#:~:text=Highlights,million%20persons%20in%20the%20period.
Kaplan, S. N., & Zingales, L. (1997). Do investment-cash flow sensitivities provide useful measures of financing constraints? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(1), 169-215. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355397555163
Kayo, E. K., Silva, W. E., & Martelanc, R. (2023). The two faces of subsidized loans. Finance Research Letters, 56, 104149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104149
Kring, W. N., & Gallagher, K. P. (2019). Strengthening the foundations? Alternative institutions for finance and development. Development and Change, 50(1), 3-23. https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.12464
La Porta, R., Lopez-De-Silanes, F., & Shleifer, A. (2002). Government ownership of banks. The Journal of Finance, 57(1), 265-301. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6261.00422
Lazzarini, S. G., Musacchio, A., Bandeira-de-Mello, R., & Marcon, R. (2015). What do state-owned development banks do? Evidence from BNDES, 2002-09. World Development, 66, 237-253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.08.016
Levy-Yeyati, E. L., Micco, A., & Panizza, U. (2004). Should the government be in the banking business? The role of state-owned and development banks [Working Paper]. Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1818717
Quaye, F. M., & Hartarska V. (2016). investment impact of microfinance credit in Ghana. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(3), 137-150. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n3p137
Resende, G. M. (2013). Regional development policy in Brazil: A review of evaluation literature. Revista de Desenvolvimento Regional, 18(3), 202-225. https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=552056834011
Simpasa, A., Shimeles, A., & Salami, A. O. (2015). Employment effects of multilateral development bank support: The case of the African Development Bank. African Development Review, 27(S1), 31-43. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12137
Sousa, F. L., & Ottaviano, G. I. P. (2018). Relaxing credit constraints in emerging economies: The impact of public loans on the productivity of Brazilian manufacturers. International Economics, 154, 23-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2017.11.002
Whited, T. M., & Wu, G. (2006). Financial constraints risk. The Review of Financial Studies, 19(2), 531-559. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhj012
Descargas
Archivos adicionales
Publicado
Número
Sección
Licencia
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
O conteúdo do(s) artigo(s) publicados na RC&F são de inteira responsabilidade do(s) autores, inclusive quanto a veracidade, atualização e precisão dos dados e informações. Os autores cedem, antecipadamente, os direitos autorais à Revista, que adota o sistema CC-BY de licença Creative Commons. Leia mais em: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/.
A RC&F não cobra taxa para a submissão de artigos. A submissão de artigo(s) à RC&F implica na autorização do(s) autor(es) para sua publicação, sem pagamento de direitos autorais.
A submissão de artigos autoriza a RC&F a adequar o texto do(s) artigo(s) a seus formatos de publicação e, se necessário, efetuar alterações ortográficas, gramaticais e normativas.
