A incerteza política econômica e a sua influência nas fusões e aquisições no Brasil

Resumo

This study aims to analyze how macroeconomic factors, especially political uncertainty, influence Brazilian companies’ decisions to engage in mergers and acquisitions (M&As) between 2001 and 2020. The research addresses an important gap by focusing on the impact of political uncertainty and economic conditions on M&As in Brazil, considering a sample of listed and unlisted companies, something that has been little explored in the literature on emerging markets. The relevance of the study stands out in a scenario of global political uncertainty, offering insights into how Brazilian companies can use M&As as a strategy in times of instability. The study provides practical guidelines for managers and broadens the academic understanding of the factors that drive M&As in emerging markets, especially those related to political uncertainty and macroeconomics. The research uses econometric models with M&A data from 2001 to 2020, assessing the impact of political uncertainty, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), interest rates, and inflation on the probability and returns of these transactions. The study shows that M&As in Brazil increase in periods of lower political uncertainty, especially when GDP and the stock market are down and interest rates and inflation are high. This suggests that M&As serve as a strategy for consolidation and the pursuit of economies of scale in times of economic instability. Acquiring companies tend to obtain positive abnormal returns in the short and long term, while high interest rates and greater corporate experience negatively influence these returns, highlighting an empire building bias. The study offers practical guidelines for managers in contexts of uncertainty.