Government subsidies and insolvency risk in Brazilian financial institutions
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.1982-6486.rco.2025.232628Keywords:
Government subsidies, Bankruptcy risk, Financial systemAbstract
This study investigates the relationship between the receipt of government subsidies and the insolvency risk of publicly listed Brazilian financial institutions. By applying regression analysis using GMM System estimators for a sample of 47 companies between 2010 and 2020, the findings reveal that government subsidies are related to a lower measured insolvency risk. However, the results differ when the sample is divided into banking and non-banking institutions. This study contributes to the literature, given the limited research on insolvency risk in the Brazilian financial sector. This evidence broadens the understanding of the effectiveness of such subsidies as a public policy tool, suggesting that receiving government subsidies may represent a source of resources capable of creating economic conditions that lead to a lower risk of insolvency in financial institutions.
Downloads
References
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589–609. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00843.x
Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D
Baselga-Pascual, L., Trujillo-Ponce, A., & Cardone-Riportella, C. (2015). Factors influencing bank risk in Europe: Evidence from the financial crisis. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 34, 138–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2015.08.004
Beaver, W. H. (1968). Market prices, financial ratios, and the prediction of failure. Journal of Accounting Research, 6(2), 179. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490233
Belém, V. C., & Gartner, I. R. (2016). Análise empírica dos buffers de capital dos bancos brasileiros no período de 2001 a 2011. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, 27(70), 113–124. https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x201612300
Ben Jabra, W., Mighri, Z., & Mansouri, F. (2017). Determinants of European bank risk during financial crisis. Cogent Economics & Finance, 5(1), 20. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2017.1298420
Benston, G. J. (2000). Is government regulation of banks necessary? Journal of Financial Services Research, 18(2/3), 185–202. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026590704616
Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8
Boyd, J. H., & De Nicolò, G. (2005). The theory of bank risk taking and competition revisited. The Journal of Finance, 60(3), 1329–1343. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00763.x
Boyd, J. H., De Nicolò, G., & Jalal, A. M. (2006). Bank risk-taking and competition revisited: New theory and new evidence. IMF Working Papers, 06(297), 49. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451865578.001
Boyd, J. H., & Graham, S. L. (1986). Risk, regulation, and bank holding company expansion into nonbanking. Quarterly Review, 10(2), 2–17. https://doi.org/10.21034/qr.1021
Boyd, J. H., Graham, S. L., & Hewitt, R. S. (1993). Bank holding company mergers with nonbank financial firms: Effects on the risk of failure. Journal of Banking & Finance, 17(1), 43–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(93)90079-S
Brandao-Marques, L., Correa, R., & Sapriza, H. (2020). Government support, regulation, and risk taking in the banking sector. Journal of Banking & Finance, 112, 105284. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.01.008
Carlos Filho, F. D. A., & Wickboldt, L. A. (2019). Criação de valor: Um estudo com foco na concessão de subvenção governamental. Enfoque: Reflexão Contábil, 38(2), 141–153. https://doi.org/10.4025/enfoque.v38i2.41720
Chaney, P. K., Faccio, M., & Parsley, D. (2011). The quality of accounting information in politically connected firms. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 51(1–2), 58–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2010.07.003
Chang, Q., Zhou, Y., Liu, G., Wang, D., & Zhang, X. (2021). How does government intervention affect the formation of zombie firms? Economic Modelling, 94, 768–779. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.02.017
Chen, X., Lee, C.-W. J., & Li, J. (2008). Government assisted earnings management in China. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, 27(3), 262–274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaccpubpol.2008.02.005
Comitê de Pronunciamentos Contábeis (CPC). (2010). Pronunciamento Técnico CPC 07 (R1) – Subvenção e Assistência Governamentais. Available on 20 de mai., 2024.
Dahir, A. M., Mahat, F. B., & Ali, N. A. B. (2018). Funding liquidity risk and bank risk-taking in BRICS countries: An application of system GMM approach. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 13(1), 231–248. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJoEM-03-2017-0086
Désiage, L. J., Duhautois, R., & Redor, D. (2010). Do public subsidies have an impact on new firm survival? An empirical study with French data. SSRN Electronic Journal, 18. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1640560
Duchin, R., & Sosyura, D. (2014). Safer ratios, riskier portfolios: Banks׳ response to government aid. Journal of Financial Economics, 113(1), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2014.03.005
Dvouletý, O., Srhoj, S., & Pantea, S. (2021). Public SME grants and firm performance in European Union: A systematic review of empirical evidence. Small Business Economics, 57(1), 243–263. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-019-00306-x
Fiordelisi, F., & Mare, D. S. (2014). Competition and financial stability in European cooperative banks. Journal of International Money and Finance, 45, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.02.008
Gilson, S. C. (1990). Bankruptcy, boards, banks, and blockholders. Journal of Financial Economics, 27(2), 355–387. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(90)90060-D
Girma, S., Görg, H., & Strobl, E. (2007). The effect of government grants on plant level productivity. Economics Letters, 94(3), 439–444. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2006.09.003
Hannan, T. H., & Hanweck, G. A. (1988). Bank insolvency risk and the market for large certificates of deposit. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 20(2), 203–211. https://doi.org/10.2307/1992111
Harris, R., & Trainor, M. (2005). Capital subsidies and their impact on total factor productivity: Firm-level evidence from Northern Ireland. Journal of Regional Science, 45(1), 49–74. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0022-4146.2005.00364.x
Hu, J., Jiang, H., & Holmes, M. (2019). Government subsidies and corporate investment efficiency: Evidence from China. Emerging Markets Review, 41, 100658. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2019.100658
Hugonnier, J., & Morellec, E. (2017). Bank capital, liquid reserves, and insolvency risk. Journal of Financial Economics, 125(2), 266–285. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2017.05.006
Iannotta, G., Nocera, G., & Sironi, A. (2013). The impact of government ownership on bank risk. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 22(2), 152–176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2012.11.002
Irresberger, F., Mühlnickel, J., & Weiß, G. N. F. (2015). Explaining bank stock performance with crisis sentiment. Journal of Banking & Finance, 59, 311–329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.06.001
Jackson, R. H. G., & Wood, A. (2013). The performance of insolvency prediction and credit risk models in the UK: A comparative study. The British Accounting Review, 45(3), 183–202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bar.2013.06.009
Jan, A., Marimuthu, M., Shad, M. K., ur-Rehman, H., Zahid, M., & Jan, A. A. (2019). Bankruptcy profile of the Islamic and conventional banks in Malaysia: A post-crisis period analysis. Economic Change and Restructuring, 52(1), 67–87. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-017-9220-7
Laeven, L., & Levine, R. (2009). Bank governance, regulation and risk taking. Journal of Financial Economics, 93(2), 259–275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2008.09.003
Lee, E., Walker, M., & Zeng, C. (2014). Do Chinese government subsidies affect firm value? Accounting, Organizations and Society, 39(3), 149–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aos.2014.02.002
Lehmann, A. P., & Hofmann, D. M. (2010). Lessons learned from the financial crisis for risk management: Contrasting developments in insurance and banking. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 35(1), 63–78. https://doi.org/10.1057/gpp.2009.38
Lepetit, L., Nys, E., Rous, P., & Tarazi, A. (2008). Bank income structure and risk: An empirical analysis of European banks. Journal of Banking & Finance, 32(8), 1452–1467. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.12.002
Lepetit, L., & Strobel, F. (2013). Bank insolvency risk and time-varying Z-score measures. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 25, 73–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2013.01.004
Liberman, M., Barbosa, K., & Pires, J. (2018). Falência bancária e capital regulatório: Evidência para o Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Economia, 72(1), 80–226. https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20180005
Lin, J. Y., & Li, Z. (2008). Policy burden, privatization and soft budget constraint. Journal of Comparative Economics, 36(1), 90–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2007.11.001
Loureiro, D. Q., Gallon, A. V., & De Luca, M. M. M. (2011). Subvenções e assistências governamentais (SAG): Evidenciação e rentabilidade das maiores empresas brasileiras. Revista de Contabilidade e Organizações, 5(13), 34–54. https://doi.org/10.11606/rco.v5i13.34803
Mao, Q., & Xu, J. (2018). The more subsidies, the longer survival? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms. Review of Development Economics, 22(2), 685–705. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12361
Moreno, I., Parrado-Martínez, P., & Trujillo-Ponce, A. (2021). Using the Z-score to analyze the financial soundness of insurance firms. European Journal of Management and Business Economics, 31, 22–39. https://doi.org/10.1108/EJMBE-09-2020-0261
Mossman, C. E., Bell, G. G., Swartz, L. M., & Turtle, H. (1998). An empirical comparison of bankruptcy models. Financial Review, 33(2), 35–54. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6288.1998.tb01367.x
Naili, M., & Lahrichi, Y. (2022). The determinants of banks’ credit risk: Review of the literature and future research agenda. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 27(1), 334–360. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2156
Oh, I., Lee, J.-D., Heshmati, A., & Choi, G.-G. (2009). Evaluation of credit guarantee policy using propensity score matching. Small Business Economics, 33(3), 335–351. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-008-9102-5
Ohlson, J. A. (1980). Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), 109. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490395
Pergelova, A., & Angulo-Ruiz, F. (2014). The impact of government financial support on the performance of new firms: The role of competitive advantage as an intermediate outcome. Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, 26(9–10), 663–705. https://doi.org/10.1080/08985626.2014.980757
Qiao, L., & Fei, J. (2022). Government subsidies, enterprise operating efficiency, and “stiff but deathless” zombie firms. Economic Modelling, 107, 105728. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105728
Rezende, A. J., Dalmácio, F. Z., & Rathke, A. A. T. (2018). Avaliação do impacto dos incentivos fiscais sobre os retornos e as políticas de investimento e financiamento das empresas. Revista Universo Contábil, 14(4), 28–49. https://doi.org/10.4270/ruc.2018426
Saac, D. M. P., & Rezende, A. J. (2019). Análise das características determinantes das empresas que usufruem de subvenções e assistências governamentais. Revista Universo Contábil, 15(2), 116–136. https://doi.org/10.4270/ruc.2019215
Santos, E. S. (2012). Análise dos impactos dos CPCs da primeira fase de transição para o IFRS no Brasil: Um exame dos ajustes aos resultados nas DFPs de 2008. Revista de Contabilidade e Organizações, 6(15), 23–43. https://doi.org/10.11606/rco.v6i15.52655
Santos Neto, F. B. D., Magalhães, J. P. M., Souza, J. L., & Parente, P. H. N. (2023). Explorando os diferenciais de disclosure de subvenção e assistência governamentais nas empresas brasileiras listadas na B3. Revista Catarinense da Ciência Contábil, 22(e3320), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.16930/2237-7662202333202
Schwartz, G., & Clements, B. (1999). Government subsidies. Journal of Economic Surveys, 13(2), 119–148. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6419.00079
Shinkle, G. A., & Suchard, J.-A. (2019). Innovation in newly public firms: The influence of government grants, venture capital, and private equity. Australian Journal of Management, 44(2), 248–281. https://doi.org/10.1177/0312896218802611
Souza, J. L., Parente, P. H. N., Farias, I. F., & Forte, H. C. (2018). Subvenção e assistência governamental em empresas brasileiras com fomento à inovação da FINEP. Revista Catarinense da Ciência Contábil, 17(51), 108–122. https://doi.org/10.16930/2237-7662/rccc.v17n51.2565
Trichet, J.-C. (2005). Financial stability and the insurance sector. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 30(1), 65–71. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.gpp.2510021
Vieira, C. A. M., & Girão, L. F. A. P. (2016). Diversificação das receitas e risco de insolvência dos bancos brasileiros. Revista de Contabilidade e Organizações, 28, 3–17. http://doi.org/10.11606/rco.v10i28.111758
Yang, Y., Wang, Y., & Chen, S. (2022). Do investors pay a premium for corporate government subsidy? Role of China’s strategic emerging industries policy and political connections. Research in International Business and Finance, 60, 101569. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101569
Yeyati, E. L., & Micco, A. (2007). Concentration and foreign penetration in Latin American banking sectors: Impact on competition and risk. Journal of Banking & Finance, 31(6), 1633–1647. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2006.11.003
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Maria Mônica Nogueira de Araújo, Ana Beatriz Vieira de Sousa, Paulo Henrique Nobre Parente, José Glauber Cavalcante dos Santos

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
The RCO adopts the Free Open Access policy, under the standard Creative Commons agreement (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). The agreement provides that:
- Submission of text authorizes its publication and implies commitment that the same material is not being submitted to another journal. The original is considered definitive.
- Authors retain the copyright and grant the journal the right of first publication, with the work simultaneously licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which allows the sharing of the work with acknowledgment of authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are authorized to take additional contracts separately, for non-exclusive distribution of the version of the work published in this journal (e.g. publish in an institutional repository or as a book chapter), with necessary recognition of authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are allowed and encouraged to publish and distribute their work online (e.g. in institutional repositories or on their personal page) before or during the editorial process, as this can generate productive changes as well as increase the impact and citation of published work (See The Effect of Free Access).
- The journal does not pay copyright to the authors of the published texts.
- The journal's copyright holder, except those already agreed in the Free Open Access Agreement (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), is the Accounting Department of the Faculty of Economics, Administration and Accounting of Ribeirão Preto of the University of São Paulo.
No submission or publication fees are charged.
Up to 4 authors per article are accepted. Exceptionally duly justified cases may be reviewed by the Executive Committee of the RCO. Exceptional cases are considered as: multi-institutional projects; manuscripts resulting from the collaboration of research groups; or involving large teams for evidence collection, construction of primary data, and comparative experiments.
It is recommended that the authorship be ordered by contribution of each of the individuals listed as authors, especially in the design and planning of the research project, in obtaining or analyzing and interpreting data, and writing. Authors must declare the actual contributions of each author, filling the letter to the editor, at the beginning of the submission, taking responsibility for the information given.
Authors are allowed to change throughout the evaluation process and prior to the publication of the manuscript. The Authors should indicate the composition and final order of authorship in the document signed by all those involved when accepted for publication. If the composition and authoring order is different than previously reported in the system, all previously listed authors should be in agreement.
In the case of identification of authorship without merit or contribution (ghost, guest or gift authorship), the RCO follows the procedure recommended by COPE.




