Inconsistencies between Estimated Transport Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Urban Mobility Plan of Manaus City

Abstract

The Urban Mobility Plan (PlanMob) as an instrument for implementing the National Urban Mobility Policy (PNMU) was promulgated in 2012 (Federal Law No. 122.587). This regulatory framework established for municipalities with more than 20 thousand inhabitants the obligation to prepare and submit the PlanMob until April of 2018, as a condition to apply for Federal funds. According to the law, PlanMob must be integrated into the Municipal Master Plan and contain objectives to increase Eco-friendly mobility including public transport systems. In Manaus, the PlanMob was published by means of the Municipal Law 2074 of 2015, which points out two intervention scenarios, but presents inconsistencies in the proposals, regarding the reduction of emissions, due to the joint treatment of gases of greenhouse and local effects, whose behavioral tendencies are antagonistic. Such proposals, besides not separating greenhouse gases and other pollutants, presented the best scenario of emission reduction for individual transport without making reference to strategies for the reduction of road traffic congestion. In addition, in the horizon 2035 the reduction of emissions pointed out is of the order of 3%, maintaining the competition with the public transportation systems. To make the comparison, emissions from the Manaus transport system were estimated using the bottom-up approach (IPCC, 2006) for the period between 2010 and 2016. The results show that the estimates show a bias in the performance of the series compared to the forecasts contained in PlanMob for the same years and for the projected year (2035). While the estimates show continued growth in CO2 emissions, PlanMob projects its reduction, including in the reference scenario, when no intervention should occur in the road network and in the public transport system.