Risk and vulnerability assessment of cultural heritage: diagnosis and proposal of Indicators applied to mountain ranges in Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil

Abstract

This article aims to analyze priority areas for conservation, evaluate the risks and vulnerabilities affecting cultural heritage, and develop vulnerability indicators based on the investigation of cultural values and significance, focusing on two protected heritage sites: Serra da Calçada and Serra do Caraça, in Minas Gerais, Southeast Brazil. The main hypothesis is that preserving these cultural sites, which hold high ecological, historical, and cultural relevance, requires territorial diagnosis and monitoring tools capable of integrating natural and cultural dimensions. The methodology included a multicriteria analysis of geospatial data for the identification of priority areas for conservation, considering ecosystem services (water, erosion, biodiversity, and cultural heritage), combined with participatory methods results - a previous phase of this study -, and the construction of vulnerability indicators. The results indicated that most areas analyzed are of high or very high conservation priority, especially those containing springs, architectural structures, archaeological sites, and trails. The analysis of fire outbreaks from 1985 to 2022 revealed a marked reduction in fire occurrences in Serra da Calçada over the last five years of the study (2017 to 2022), whereas Serra do Caraça remained highly vulnerable. Physical, social, and environmental indicators were developed, based on the pressure-state-response model, to support continuous monitoring and management of cultural heritage sites. The study concludes that the adopted approach enables systematic assessments of cultural heritage vulnerability and provides support for decision-making in its preservation.