Variabilidade da precipitação no Centro-Oeste do Brasil entre 1958 e 2024

Autores

  • Raquel Nunes Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
  • Amaury de Souza Universidade Federal do Mato Grosso do Sul
  • Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso Universidade Federal de Alagoas
  • Sianny Vanessa da Silva Freitas Universidade Federal do Pará https://orcid.org/0009-0000-1449-7597
  • José Francisco de Oliveira Júnior Universidade Federal de Alagoas https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6131-7605

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11606/eISSN.2236-2878.rdg.2026.252317

Palavras-chave:

Precipitação em grade, variabilidade sazonal, anomalias anuais, Centro-Oeste brasileiro

Resumo

Estimativas de precipitação requerem avaliação local antes de fundamentarem inferências sobre mudanças hidroclimáticas de longo prazo. Este estudo analisa a precipitação mensal do TerraClimate em células associadas a Brasília, Goiânia, Cuiabá e Campo Grande entre 1958 e 2024. Foram examinadas climatologias sazonais, anomalias anuais, médias de décadas completas, tendências das séries integrais e associações entre a precipitação de dezembro a fevereiro (DJF) e o Índice Oceânico Niño (ONI) histórico. A comparação com pluviômetros próximos utilizou de 134 a 304 meses completos coincidentes por localidade. O trimestre climatológico mais chuvoso foi DJF em três localidades e novembro–janeiro em Brasília. As inclinações de Sen variaram de −2,26 a +2,02 mm ano⁻¹, sem tendências anuais significativas. As médias provisórias de 2020–2024 foram 5,7–34,1% inferiores às de 2010–2019, mas esses contrastes entre períodos desiguais não demonstram mudança de regime. As correlações DJF–ONI variaram de −0,041 a +0,267 e não foram significativas após ajuste para as quatro localidades. As correlações com os pluviômetros variaram de 0,767 a 0,916 para os totais mensais e de 0,292 a 0,745 para as anomalias dessazonalizadas. Os resultados sustentam interpretações locais da sazonalidade, mas limitam conclusões sobre anomalias individuais, secamento uniforme e resposta uniforme ao ENOS (El Niño–Oscilação Sul). A avaliação histórica não valida os déficits de 2020–2024.

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Biografia do Autor

  • Raquel Nunes, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro

    She holds a Bachelor's degree in Biological Sciences, with a specialization in Microbiology and Immunology, from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), a postgraduate specialization in Food Safety from the Federal Institute of Rio de Janeiro (IFRJ), and both a Master's degree and a PhD in Food Science from UFRJ.

    She has extensive teaching experience in higher education, having taught Microbiology and Parasitology at Santa Úrsula University and Microbiology, Parasitology, and Immunology at Salgado de Oliveira University and SENAC Rio. She also served as an Adjunct Professor at the Federal Rural University of the Amazon (UFRA), where she taught courses in Microbiology, Parasitology, and Immunology and participated in research projects focusing on Food Microbiology and Molecular Biology.

    She is currently a faculty member at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) and is conducting postdoctoral research at the Laboratory of Bacterial Molecular Biology. Her research focuses on the comparative genomics and phylogenomics of clonal lineages of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) prevalent in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro and associated with bacteremia and skin and soft tissue infections. Her current research activities also include advanced training in gene expression analysis and experimental assays using animal models.

  • Amaury de Souza, Universidade Federal do Mato Grosso do Sul

    He holds a Bachelor's degree in Physics from the Federal University of São Carlos (1976), a Master's degree in Agronomy, specializing in Agricultural Meteorology, from the Federal University of Viçosa (1988), and a PhD in Environmental Technologies from the Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (2013).

    Throughout his academic career at the Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS), he has held several senior administrative positions, including Head of the Department of Physics, Coordinator of the Pantanal Research Base, Research Coordinator, Dean of Research, Vice-Rector, and Acting Rector, assuming the latter position following the expiration of the Rector's and Vice-Rector's terms of office.

    He has also served as an Associate Researcher at Brown University. His editorial experience includes serving as Associate Editor of the Journal of Mathematical Techniques and Computational Mathematics (JMTCM), Editor-in-Chief of the UFMS Press, and Associate Editor of the journals Water (ISSN 2073-4441), Journal of Energy Research and Reviews, and International Journal of Environment and Climate Change.

    His research expertise encompasses Environmental Meteorology, Urban Meteorology, Climatology, Fire Meteorology, and Meteorology and Health.

  • Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso, Universidade Federal de Alagoas

    Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso is a Brazilian researcher with an academic background in Meteorology from the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences at the Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL), Brazil. His academic and research activities span multiple disciplines, particularly at the intersection of atmospheric sciences, artificial intelligence, and urban sustainability.

    Since 2019, he has been actively involved in scientific research, having served as an undergraduate research fellow in projects funded by the Alagoas Research Support Foundation (FAPEAL). His research activities have focused on the WRF-Solar model for numerical weather prediction and energy-related studies. His participation in projects involving the mapping of solar energy potential across the state of Alagoas and the assessment of natural disaster impacts demonstrates his interest in addressing regional environmental and societal challenges through scientific and technological approaches.

    His academic training includes more than 1,500 hours of supplementary coursework offered by internationally recognized institutions, including the University of Michigan, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), the University of New South Wales (UNSW), IBM Research, Google, and Johns Hopkins University. His additional training covers a broad range of topics, including machine learning, smart cities, geoprocessing, solid waste management, and renewable energy.

    On the international academic scene, Cardoso has participated in conferences organized by the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in Boston, serving as a conference assistant in 2021 and presenting research findings in 2022. He has also contributed to the organization of academic events, including the Biosystems Engineering Congress at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), demonstrating experience in scientific communication and academic event coordination.

    Cardoso has also contributed to the peer-review process for international scientific journals. He holds peer-review excellence certifications from Elsevier, IOP Publishing, and the American Chemical Society (ACS), and has served as a reviewer for journals such as Urban Climate, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, and Sustainable Cities and Society.

    His teaching experience includes serving as a teaching assistant in Synoptic Meteorology, Calculus I, and Physical Oceanography, reflecting his engagement in undergraduate education and academic training.

    His research interests encompass interdisciplinary approaches connecting atmospheric sciences, emerging technologies, and societal challenges, with particular emphasis on the application of computational methods and artificial intelligence to environmental and urban sustainability.

  • Sianny Vanessa da Silva Freitas, Universidade Federal do Pará

    Sianny is a veterinarian with a Master's degree in Tropical Diseases from the Center for Tropical Medicine at the Federal University of Pará (UFPA), Brazil. Her research focuses on epidemiological investigations of infectious tropical diseases and the assessment of environmental impacts on human health. She has extensive laboratory experience, particularly in microbiology and histopathology of non-human primates. Her research activities also encompass the application of geospatial analysis to public health and the investigation of socio-environmental determinants of health.

  • José Francisco de Oliveira Júnior, Universidade Federal de Alagoas

    He holds a Bachelor's degree in Meteorology (1998) and a Master's degree in Meteorology (2001) from the Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL), Brazil. He obtained his PhD in Atmospheric Sciences from the Civil Engineering Graduate Program (COPPE) at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) in 2008 and completed postdoctoral research in Mechanical Engineering at COPPE/UFRJ in 2011.

    From 2005 to 2010, he held Industrial Technological Development (DTI) fellowships, at levels DTI/7B and DTI/7A, funded by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) and the Ministry of Science and Technology (MCT). During this period, he worked at the National Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEN), conducting research on radiological safety in mining and industrial facilities and radioactive waste disposal sites. His professional experience includes 66 visits to underground mines throughout Brazil, a record he identifies as unique among Brazilian meteorologists.

    He has participated as an Associate Researcher in academic collaborations with the University of Burgos (UBU), Spain, and Pukyong National University (PKNU), South Korea. He is also a member of the European Geophysical Society and COSIS.net.

    He is currently an Associate Professor IV at the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences (ICAT), Federal University of Alagoas (UFAL), where he leads the Laboratory of Environment and Applied Meteorology (LAMMA). From 2011 to 2017, he served as a professor at the Institute of Forestry (IF), Department of Environmental Sciences (DCA), at the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ).

    He teaches in several graduate programs, including the Graduate Program in Biosystems Engineering at the Fluminense Federal University (UFF), the Graduate Program in Meteorology (PPGMET) at UFAL, and the Graduate Program in Architecture and Urbanism (PPGAU) at UFAL. Throughout his academic career, he has supervised or co-supervised 31 Master's graduates and three PhD graduates, in addition to supervising four postdoctoral researchers.

    He has served as a peer reviewer for 12 Brazilian and 50 international scientific journals. From 2018 to 2022, he was Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Atmospheric Science Research. He also served as Extension Coordinator at ICAT/UFAL from 2018 to 2022 and was a Guest Editor for the MDPI journal International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health in 2023.

    His research expertise encompasses Environmental Meteorology, Mountain Meteorology, Nuclear Meteorology, Urban Meteorology, Climatology, Fire Meteorology, Air Quality Meteorology, and Meteorology and Health.

    He is a researcher with several interdisciplinary research groups, including the Environmental and Atmospheric Modeling Research Group (GPMAA) at UFRRJ; the Climate Risks and Regional Development in the Amazon Research Group (GRIDAM) at the Federal University of Pará (UFPA); and the BiodAI – AI Engineering Research Center for Biodiversity at the Fluminense Federal University (UFF). He is also affiliated with INCT-CONEXÃO, the National Institute for Research and Excellence in Knowledge of the Eastern Amazon.

    In addition to his research and academic activities, he is actively involved in mentoring early-career researchers. Through his mentorship, two former students have pursued full-time doctoral studies in North America: Bruno Serafini Sobral at the University of Northern British Columbia (UNBC), Canada, and Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso at Utah State University (USU), United States.

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Publicado

06-11-2026

Edição

v. 47 (2026): Publicação Contínua

Seção

Artigos

Licença

Direitos autorais (c) 2026 Raquel Nunes, Amaury de Souza, Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso, Sianny Vanessa da Silva Freitas, José Francisco de Oliveira Júnior

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Como Citar

Nunes, R., de Souza, A., Rosalvo Alencar Cardoso, K., Vanessa da Silva Freitas, S., & Francisco de Oliveira Júnior, J. (2026). Variabilidade da precipitação no Centro-Oeste do Brasil entre 1958 e 2024. Revista Do Departamento De Geografia, 47, e252317. https://doi.org/10.11606/eISSN.2236-2878.rdg.2026.252317