Impact of COVID-19 on notifiable diseases: a time series study

Abstract

Objective: To assess the indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis, congenital syphilis, gestational syphilis, and dengue. Method: Epidemiological, ecological, time series study. The period from 2015–2021 was analyzed, in a medium-sized municipality in Paraná, and compared to the state of Paraná and Brazil. Data were extracted from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN). Gross and standardized incidence/detection rates were calculated. Temporal trends were constructed using linear regression models. Results: There was an increase in the rates of congenital syphilis in 2021 (30% of cases, β = 4.47, 95% CI: 1.24–7.69), gestational syphilis during the pandemic (41% of cases, β = 3.65, 95% CI: 1.08–6.21), and tuberculosis (β = 2.48, 95% CI: 1.08–3.88). There was an increase in the standardized mean rate for tuberculosis (p = 0.022) and congenital syphilis (p = 0.034) in the first two pandemic years. Conclusion: COVID-19 indirectly impacted the control of tuberculosis, congenital and gestational syphilis in the municipality studied. The high rates did not follow the national and state trend and indicate that health surveillance should be municipalized for local priorities.