EIR Model to assess the Covid-19 pandemic behavior in Marabá-PA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.1679-9836.v100i4p322-328Keywords:
COVID-19, Coronavirus disease, Forecasting, Statistical models, Epidemiology, Brazil/epidemiologyAbstract
Objective: To determine the behavior of the COVID-19 case curve in Marabá. Methodology: The SEIR compartmentalized model was applied based on the local epidemiological data with the estimated values of latency time and infectious time obtained in Chinese populations that were tested objectively to estimate the development of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Marabá. Results: The first peak showed a total of 1438 infected (28/09/2020) after the documentation of the first case (23/03/2020) demonstrating exponential behavior. We also observed for the next 30 days, from 14/08/2020, a downward trend in the number of cases in the city, the number of basal reproduction () assumed the value of 3.29 between the beginning of the pandemic and the date of the first peak (28/06/2020), at the end of the study period this number was 0.8. Discussion: The model performed well when compared to the documented cases, but there was a discrepancy in the downward phase of the pandemic, possibly due to the absence of more accurate data. This adequate behavior of the model based on these data indicates that the COVID-19 dissemination should be similar despite the geographical distances and the miscegenation of the Brazilian population. Conclusion: The use of the SEIR model based on local epidemiological data with the estimated values of latency time and infectious time obtained in objectively tested Chinese populations proved to be a useful tool for predicting the behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Copyright (c) 2021 Walisson Ferreira Barbosa, Ester Barros da Costa Moreira, Juliana Mattei de Araújo, Antônio Pazin-Filho, Cláudia Dizioli Franco Bueno
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