Temporal trend of COVID-19 confirmed cases in children, adolescents and adults in São Carlos – SP between 2020 and 2021: a time-series study

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.1679-9836.v103i6e-222591

Keywords:

Adolescent, Child, COVID-19, Time Series studies

Abstract

Introduction: COVID-19 behavior in childhood was different from that of adults and the evaluation of these cases and their trend over time was poorly explored. Also, lethality in the disease in the pediatric population was observed, highlighting the importance of studies in this population. Objective: To analyze the temporal trend in COVID-19-confirmed cases in children and adolescents and compare it to adults in São Carlos. Methods: A time-series study was conducted between February 2020 and March 2021 in São Carlos, SP, Brazil, comparing children and adolescents to adults, both with a positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test, in the Epidemiology Surveillance database. Time was split at the 38th epidemiological week (periods 1 and 2). The data were analyzed using a Prais–Winsten generalized linear regression model, considering a p-value < 0.05. The e-SUS database was investigated in the same period, to evaluate clinical cases in children and adolescents’ characteristics. Results: Three thousand and sixteen RT-PCR tests were performed on children and adolescents, and 791 (26.0%) were positive. There was a rising trend of cases, and the comparison between the periods revealed a 2.5-fold increase for children and adolescents and a 3.0-fold increase for adults. Conclusion: There was a rising trend in cases that was comparable between children, adolescents, and adults. This result helps the knowledge about the transmission in children, adolescents, and adults, at the local level. This way, it contributes to the construction of preventive interventions that are necessary and related to public policies.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

  • Carlos Henrique Araújo de Carvalho, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, São Carlos, SP. Brasil.

    Graduando do Departamento de Medicina da UFSCar

  • Cristina Ortiz Valete, Universidade Federal de São Carlos - UFSCar, São Carlos, SP. Brasil.

    Graduação em Medicina pela Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (1992), mestrado em Saúde da Criança e do Adolescente pela Universidade Federal Fluminense (1999) e doutorado em Epidemiologia/Saúde Coletiva pela Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (2005). Atualmente é Professor Adjunto de Pediatria da Universidade Federal Fluminense e Vice-coordenadora do Programa de Pos-graduacao em Saude Materno Infantil, nivel Mestrado Profissional (2015). Tem experiência na área de Medicina e Saúde Coletiva/Gestão, com ênfase em Saúde Materno-Infantil, atuando principalmente nos seguintes temas: prematuro, terapia intensiva pediátrica, anemia, recém-nascido, crescimento e desenvolvimento. E especialista e tem vasta experiência em terapia intensiva pediátrica. Orienta trabalhos multiprofissionais nas áreas de Neonatologia, Terapia Intensiva Neonatal e Terapia Intensiva Pediatrica.

  • Esther Angelica Luiz Ferreira, Universidade Federal de São Carlos - UFSCar, São Carlos, SP. Brasil.

    Professora Adjunta do Departamento de Medicina da UFSCar

  • Ana Luiza Carvalho Sartoreli, Universidade Federal de São Carlos - UFSCar, São Carlos, SP. Brasil.

    Graduanda do Departamento de Medicina da UFSCar

  • Crislaine Aparecida Antônio Mestre, Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de São Carlos, São Carlos, SP. Brasil.

    Diretoria do Departamento de Gestão e Cuidado Ambulatorial da Secretaria de Saúde de São Carlos

References

Brasil. Ministério da Saúde. Organização Mundial de Saúde declara pandemia do novo Coronavírus. https://www.unasus.gov.br/noticia/organizacao-mundial-de-saude-declara-pandemia-de-coronavirus.

Brasil. Ministério da Saúde. Linha do tempo COVID-19. Disponível em: https://coronavirus.saude.gov.br/linha-do-tempo/.

Zimmermann P, Curtis N. Coronavirus infections in children including COVID-19: an overview of the epidemiology, clinical features, diagnosis, treatment and prevention options in children. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2020;39 (5):355-68. Doi: 10.1097/INF.0000000000002660.

Boechat JL, Wandalsen GF, Kuschnir FG, Delgado L. COVID-19 and pediatric asthma: clinical and management challenges. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021;18 (3):1093. Doi: 10.3390/ijerph18031093.

Ladhani SN, Amin-Chowdhury Z, Davoes HG, Aiano F, Hayden I, Lacy J, et al. COVID-19 in children: analysis of the first pandemic peak in England. Arch Dis Child. 2020;105 (12):1180-5. Doi: 10.1136/archdischild-2020-320042.

Al-Kuwari MG, Mohammed AM, Abdulmajeed J, Al-Romaihi H, Al-Mass M, Abushaikha SS, et al. COVID-19 testing, incidence, and positivity trends among school age children during the academic years 2020–2022 in the State of Qatar: special focus on using CDC indicators for community transmission to evaluate school attendance policies and public health response. BMC Pediatrics. 2024;24 (1): 371. Doi: 10.1186/s12887-024-04833-9.

Sabino EC, Buss LF, Carvalho MPS, Prete Jr CA, Crispim MAE, Fraiji NA, et al. Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence. The Lancet. 2021;397(10273):452-5. Doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00183-5.

Siqueira CAS, Freitas YNL, Cancela MC, Carvalho M, da Silva LP, Dantas NCD, Souza DLB. COVID-19 no Brasil: tendências, desafios e perspectivas após 18 meses de pandemia. Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2022;46:e-74. Doi: 10.26633/RPSP.2022.74.

Brasil. Assembleia Legislativa de São Paulo. Instituto Butantan detecta 36 variantes do coronavírus em circulação no Estado de São Paulo | São Carlos em Rede. https://saocarlosemrede.com.br/instituto-butantan-detecta-36-variantes-do-coronavirus-em-circulacao-no-estado-de-sao-paulo/.

Brasil. Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Safadi MA, Kfouri RA. Dados Epidemiológicos da COVID-19 em Pediatria. https://www.sbp.com.br/fileadmin/user_upload/22972b-NT_-_Dados_Epidem_COVID-19_em_Pediatria.pdf.

Meyer M, Holfter A, Ruebsteck E, Gruell H, Dewald F, Koerner RW, et al. The Alpha Variant (B.1.1.7) of SARS-CoV-2 in children: first experience from 3544 nucleic acid amplification tests in a cohort of children in Germany. Viruses. 2021;13(8):1600. Doi: 10.3390/v13081600.

Brasil. Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. População estimada pelo IBGE segundo faixas etárias. Observatório da Criança e do Adolescente. https://observatoriocrianca.org.br/cenario-infancia/temas/populacao/1048-populacao-estimada-pelo-ibge-segundo-faixas-etarias?filters=1.

Brasil. Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. https://cidades.ibge.gov.br/brasil/sp/sao-carlos/panorama.

Malta M, Cardoso LO, Bastos FI, Magnanini MMF, Silva CMFP. STROBE initiative: guidelines on reporting observational studies. Rev Saúde Pública. 2020;44 (3):559-65. Doi: 10.1590/s0034-89102010000300021.

Antunes JLF, Cardoso MRA. Using time series analysis in epidemiological studies. Epidemiol Serv Saude. 2015;24(3):565-76. Doi: 10.5123/S1679-49742015000300024.

Gentile A, Juárez MV, Bollon RL, Aprea V, Matteucci E, Falaschi A, et al. Comparison of Epidemiologic and Clinical COVID-19 Profiles in Children in Argentina, During Circulation of Original and Variant (Alpha, Gamma and Lambda) Strains. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2023;42 (2):136-42. Doi: 10.1097/INF.0000000000003776.

Santos AO, Lucarevschia BR, Bajerl MH, Pires LO, Ubriaco DC, Nascimento LFC. SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents: a Brazilian experience. Rev Paul Pediatr. 2022;40:e2021172. Doi: 0.1590/1984-0462/2022/40/2021172IN.

Amaya G, Santoro A, Fernández K, Dewaele R. Factores asociados a la positividad de la PCR para SARS-CoV-2 en menores de 15 años. Arch Pediatr Urug. 2022;93(s2):e226. Doi: 10.31134/AP.93.s2.3.

Maciel ELN, Jabor PM, Gonçalves JE, Soares KKS, Prado TN, Zandionade E. COVID-19 in children in Espirito Santo State – Brazil. Rev Bras Saúde Mater Infant. 2022;22 (2): 415-22. Doi: 10.1590/1806-9304202200020012.

López P, Bellesté R, Seija V. Diagnóstico de laboratorio de COVID-19. Rev Méd Urug 2020;36(4):393-400. Doi: 10.29193/RMU.36.4.7.

Silva VR, Pacheco ES, Cardoso OO, Lima LHO, Rodrigues MTP, Mascarenhas MDM. Temporal trend of COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates and their relationship with socioeconomic indicators in the state of Piauí, Brazil: an ecological study, 2020-2021. Epidemiol Serv Saúde. 2022;31(2):e20211150. Doi: 10.1590/S2237-96222022000200022.

Neto JC, Feitosa EM, Silva KV, Oliveira CJ. Analysis of epidemiological indicators of children and adolescents affected by Covid-19 in Northeastern Brazil. Rev Enf UFSM. 2021;11(e19):1-19. Doi: 10.5902/2179769263043.

Martins-Filho PR, Araújo AA, Quintans-Júnior LJ, Soares BS, Barboza WS, Cavalcante TS, et al. Dynamics of hospitalizations and in-hospital deaths from COVID-19 in Northeast Brazil: a retrospective analysis based on the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination coverage. Epidemiol Health. 2022;e2022036. Doi: 10.4178/epih.e2022036.

Bastos LS, Ranzani OT, Souza TML, Hamacher S, Bozza FA. COVID-19 hospital admissions: Brazil’s first and second waves compared. Lancet Respir Med. 2021;9(8): e82-3. Doi: 10.1016/S2213-2600(21)00287-3.

Brasil. Ministério da Saúde. SRAG 2020 - Banco de Dados de Síndrome Respiratória Aguda Grave - incluindo dados da COVID-19 - Conjuntos de dados - Open Data. Disponível em: https://opendatasus.saude.gov.br/dataset/ bd-srag-2020.

Sousa BLA, Silva CA, Ferraro AA. An update on the epidemiology of pediatric COVID-19 in Brazil. Rev Paul Ped. 2022;40:e2021367. Doi:10.1590/1984-0462/2022/40/2021367.

Chiwandire N, Jassat W, Groome M, Kufa T, Walaza S, Wolter N, et al. Changing epidemiology of COVID-19 in children and adolescents over four successive epidemic waves in South Africa, 2020-2022. J Pediatr Infect Dis Soc. 2023;12(3):128-34. Doi: 10.1093/jpids/piad002.

Alteri C, Scutari R, Costabile V, Colagrossi L, La Rosa KY, Agolini E, et al. Publisher Correction: Epidemiological characterization of SARS-CoV-2 variants in children over the four COVID-19 waves and correlation with clinical presentation. Sci Rep. 2022;12(1):12814. Doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-14426-0.

Chicco D, Warrens MJ, Jurman G. The coefficient of determination R-squared is more informative than SMAPE, MAE, MAPE, MSE and RMSE in regression analysis evaluation. Peer J Comput Sci. 2021;7:e623. Doi: 10.7717/peerj-cs.623.

Downloads

Published

2024-11-04

Issue

Vol. 103 No. 6 (2024)

Section

Artigos Originais/Originals Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2024 Carlos Henrique Araújo de Carvalho, Cristina Ortiz Valete, Esther Angelica Luiz Ferreira, Ana Luiza Carvalho Sartoreli; Crislaine Aparecida Antônio Mestre

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Carvalho, C. H. A. de, Valete, C. O. ., Ferreira, E. A. L. ., & Sartoreli, A. L. C. . (2024). Temporal trend of COVID-19 confirmed cases in children, adolescents and adults in São Carlos – SP between 2020 and 2021: a time-series study (C. A. A. . Mestre, Trans.). Revista De Medicina, 103(6), e-222591. https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.1679-9836.v103i6e-222591