Predicting pancreatic fistulas after pancreatoduodenectomy: development and internal validation of a new preoperative nomogram

Abstract

Introduction  Pancreatic Fistula (PF) is a major complication following Pancreatoduodenectomy (PD), making its prediction crucial for individualized treatment. The aim of this study is to develop a preoperative nomogram to predict PF after PD.

Material and methods  From January 2009 to January 2018, patients who underwent PD were reviewed. Variables with p < 0.1 from univariate analysis were selected for a multivariate analysis. Variables with p < 0.05 were then included in the nomogram, which was internally validated in a different group of patients.

Results  262 patients underwent PD during the period of the study. The risk factors for PF identified in the derivation group were male gender (OR = 2.89), higher BMI (OR = 1.14) and pancreatic duct diameter ≤ 3 mm (OR = 3.52). Preoperative weight loss exceeding 10 % within six months was protective against PF (OR = 0.16). A preoperative nomogram incorporating these four variables was developed and demonstrated good performance in the validation set, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.798.

Conclusions  male gender, a main pancreatic duct ≤ 3 mm and higher BMI are risk factors for PF, while weight loss is protective. The developed nomogram accurately predicts PF occurrence using these variables.