Crises da dívida nos anos 1990

Resumo

This paper simulates the self-fulfilling debt crisis model, for Korea and Russia, using the procedure developed by Cole and Kehoe (1996), to reproduce the Mexican economy in the eight-month period before the 1994-1995 crisis. In the Cole-Kehoe model, self-fulfilling debt crisis may occur when the government debt level and the bond maturity are such thatthe indebtedness is located atthe interval, denominated crisis zone. The simulations show that the indebtedness is at this critical region for the three countries. Besides, a policy function for the public debt is estimated for the average maturity ofthe government bonds, in the period before the crisis, for each country. In this way, it is possible to obtain the optimal trajectory that could be followed in order to reduce the debt level and leave the crisis zone.