Efeitos da instabilidade da taxa de câmbio no comércio setorial entre Brasil e seus principais parceiros comerciais

Abstract

This study aimed to evaluate how the exchange rate instability has affected the flow of sectoral exports and imports of Brazil with its main partners (China, USA, Argentina, Netherlands, Japan, Germany and Chile), in the period 1989-2011. Estimations were carried by a gravity equation for exports and imports, per sectors, between Brazil and its trading partners considered. The results for the flow of imports and exports showed that the effect of exchange rate instability and the third country effect (exchange rate instability of a third country) are detrimental to all sectors, indicating that the two sectoral trade flows between Brazil and its main partners are negatively affected not only by their own exchange rate uncertainty, but also by the instability of the exchange rate of the partners.