Bolsa Família or Economic Performance? Determinants of Lula’s Re-election in 2006

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of the outcome of Brazilian presidential elections in 2006, in particular the role of the Bolsa Família Program and the economic performance in the migration of the electoral base of Lula for less developed regions. Among the usual Lula’s electorate, joining the Bolsa Família program did not increase the likelihood of voting in this candidate. Among the other voters, this effect was positive. Moreover, higher economic growth only resulted in more votes for Lula among the richest voters. Regarding the elections results, the impact of Bolsa Família proved to be quite superior than the economic performance. However, neither of the two factors was able to satisfactorily explain the full extent of the observed change in 2006.