Dívida pública, política fiscal e nível de atividade: uma abordagem VAR para o Brasil no período 1995-2008

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the real effects of fiscal policy in Brazil during the 1995-2008 period by estimating a VAR model that explicitly takes into consideration the role of public debt in the determination of fiscal variables, as recommended by (Favero & Giavazzi 2007). According to our results, it really makes a difference whether one takes into account the public debt's role in the fiscal policy process; more specifically, models that omit the public debt are likely to overestimate the real effects of fiscal policy shocks.