A política fiscal e as taxas de juros nos países emergentes

Abstract

This paper analyzes the role of fiscal policy sustainability on the determinants of domestic interest rate of 18 emerging market countries, in the period 1996-2008. This issue deserves attention since countries in the sample present a great level of heterogeneity relating to inflation target and exchange rate regime, political system, foreign reserves and saving rates; and such differences may also affect interest rate. Despite the heterogeneity between countries, the result shows that is not possible to reject the hypothesis that fiscal policy sustainability decreases domestic interest rate in emerging markets. An increase of 1% at primary budget decreases interest rate between 50 to 100 basis point; a figure tree times higher than the one estimated by Aisen & Hauner (2008) for emerging economies. This fact illustrates the importance of fiscal policy in determining interest rate in emerging economies and therefore the limitation of central bank in the conduction of monetary policy.