Structural breaks in the cattle price series in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract

This paper examines the existence of structural breaks in the live cattle price series in the state of São Paulo between 1954 and 2012. Due to the importance of cattle ranching in Brazil and the characteristics of the series of cattle price, such as seasonal cycles, the series has previously been used for discussion and study of econometric tests, like seasonal unit root and cointegration analysis. In this paper, we test whether structural breaks have originated from certain historical events, including government intervention. Bai & Perron (1998,2003) developed the main method we use for the identification and dating of breaks. The results suggest that government interventions, especially the monetary stabilization plans, have led to significantchanges in the price behavior of cattle