The natural interest rate in DSGE models: the case of Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/ea189734Keywords:
natural rate of interest, monetary policy, DSGE modelsAbstract
Using a DSGE model, this paper seeks to estimate the natural interest rate of the Brazilian economy in the period 2000T1-2018T4, in addition to assessing the behavior of the Central Bank during the period. An estimated curve of the natural interest rate is used to evaluate the conduct of monetary policy. The natural rate started to decline from 2002 until 2012, when it rose until mid-2016, remaining stable thereafter. The interest rate gap increased under Meirelles, falling until mid-Tombini. It showed an upward trend until the end, falling again under Goldfajn.
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