Estimação da matriz insumo-produto a partir de dados preliminares das contas nacionais

Abstract

The goal ofthis study is to present and to analyze a methodology to estimate Input-Output Matrices using preliminary data from the Brazilian National Accounts. This methodology is tested for the years of 1994 and 1996, where the results obtained from the input-output matrices (definitive version) available from IBGE are compared with the matrices estimated using the proposed methodology. The results analyzed refer to: a) type I production multipliers; b) Rasmussen-Hirschman backward and forward linkages; and c) Pure backward and forward linkages. Based on statistical methods (correlation indexes), the results show that the estimated matrices are similar to the ones released by IBGE. As so, this methodology can be used to estimate Brazilian national input-output matrices for the time periods where there are only preliminary data, and the economic structural analysis made with the estimated matrices are valid for the years analyzed.