Reservas internacionais ótimas para o Brasil: uma análise simples de custo-benefício para o período 1999-2007

Abstract

This paper calculates the optimal level of foreign reserves for Brazil during 1999-2007, by applying various extensions of the Ben-Bassat and Gottlieb (1992) framework. We also estimate the social loss due to differences between actual and optimal reserves holdings by the Brazilian Central Bank. Our results suggest that, under various alternative scenarios and hypotheses regarding the model's main parameters, the actual level of reserves in Brazil has become "excessive" around 2005-2006, thereby generating high and increasing costs for the Brazilian economy.