Administração da dívida pública sob um regime de metas para inflação: evidências para o caso brasileiro

Abstract

The use of the interest rate as the main instrument in the search for inflation target and the fact that large part of the Brazilian public debt is indexed to this rate implies a reciprocity between the conduction of monetary policy and public debt management. It was observed that the use of the monetary policy focused on a disinflationary process implied a negative effect that cannot be neglect for the fiscal equilibrium. The findings denote that the strategy of increasing the share of prefixed public bonds and indexed to the price index is adequate to avoid deterioration in the public debt/GDP ratio. On the other hand, an increase in the average maturity of public debt still not provoked the expected advantages. A variable that deserves attention is the credibility in the conduction of the monetary policy because it is capable to promote a fall in the public debt and improves the control on inflation.