VULNERABILIDAD EXTERNA Y CICLOS ECONÓMICOS EN BRASIL POST-REAL PLAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/ea173917Palabras clave:
vulnerabilidade externa, ciclos econômicos, fator dinâmicoResumen
Las economías emergentes dependen de un flujo constante de recursos externos y son susceptibles de ataques especulativos contra su moneda, debido a choques externos o fundamentos macroeconómicos frágiles. Este artículo evaluá el impacto de la fragilidad externa en los ciclos económicos en Brasil entre 1996 y 2019. El trabajo utiliza el modelo de factores dinámicos para derivar un indicador de vulnerabilidad externa y el método generalizado de momentos para analizar la importancia de la vulnerabilidad externa para las fluctuaciones económicas. Los resultados muestran que una creciente vulnerabilidad externa está asociada con la expansión de la actividad económica en Brasil.
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