Desemprego regional no Brasil: uma abordagem empírica

Abstract

The paper analyzes the evolution of Brazilian regional unemployment rates. Our main goal is to investigate how similar are the unemployment movements across regions, both in the short and the long run. The analysis is based on observation over the 1980-1995 period for the six metropolitan regions covered by Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME/IBGE), a monthly employment survey. We find evidence that aggregate components are extremely relevant for regional unemployment rates, except for the Recife metropolitan area. We identify short and long-run comovements between the other five metropolitan unemployment rates and the national unemployment rate. The paper also decomposes unemployment series on permanent and transitory elements. The permanent components follow very closely the respective unemployment rates, which indicates the high persistence of the shocks that affect the regional unemployment rates.