Mobilidade de capitais e movimentos da conta corrente do Brasil: 1947-1997

Abstract

After a careful historical analysis of the Brazilian economy for the post-WWII period one concludes that the country have faced at least some restrictions to capital mobility. In order to formally test its degree, we propose using econometric tools applied to the intertemporal model of consumption smoothing, where current-account movements are a result of optimal consumption behavior, i.e., current-account deficits finance consumption increases today when income is expected to rise in the future (and vice-versa). Our econometric results concur with the a priori historical perspective, since we formally reject some of the testable restrictions of the theoretical model. Despite that, we find some degree of capital mobility for the Brazilian economy, which is discussed in the context of the intertemporal model of consumption smoothing.