O programa brasileiro de estabilização: problemas e perspectivas

Abstract

This paper analyses the Brazilian stabilization program of February 28 and discusses its main implications and problems. The analysis is qualitative, since the paper was written one month after the "monetary reform" A reference model is used to evaluate the non-neutrality of the reform regarding relative prices, functional and sectoral income distribution, and the volume of output and employment. Then specific aspects of the program are analysed, such as the adjustment in the financial sector, the prospect for the public sector deficit, the lifting of the price freeze, the de-indexation of the economy, and the recovery of private investment. As a plan of high risk, it is argued that the Cruzado Plan will require a consistent and competent macroeconomic policy in the following six to nine months to avoid the accumulation