Credibilidade e inércia inflacionária no Brasil: 1986-1998
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-53573132ctmpKeywords:
creditibility, inflationary inertia, stabilization plans, Kalman filterAbstract
O objetivo deste artigo é realizar uma análise econométrica dos efeitos da credibilidade dos principais planos de estabilização implementados no Brasil a partir de 1986 sobre o comportamento da taxa de inflação.
Downloads
References
AGENOR, Pierre-Richard; MONTIEL, Peter. Development macroeconomics. 2a edição. Princeton; Princeton University Press, 1999.
AGENOR, Pierre-Richard; TAYLOR, Mark. Testing for credibility effects. IMF StaffPapers, v. 39, n. 3, 1992.
AGENOR, Pierre-Richard; TAYLOR, Mark. Analysing credibility in highinflation countries: a new approach. EconomicJournal, v. 103, n. 417, 1993.
ALOGOSKOUFIS, George. Monetary accomodation, exchange rate regimes and inflation persistence. EconomicJournal, v. 102,1992.
BACHA, Edmar. Piano Real: uma avalia^ao preliminar. RevistadoBNDES, v. 1, n. 1, 1995.
BONOMO, Marco; TERRA, Cristina. The political economy of exchange rate policy in Brazil: 1964-1997. Ensaios Economicos, EPGE, n. 341, 1999.
CUTHBERSON, Keith; HALL, Stephen; TAYLOR, Mark. Applied econometric techniques. Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1992.
DORNBUSCH, Rudiger; STURZENEGGER, Federico; WOLF, Holger. Extreme inflation: dynamics and stabilization. Brookings Papers on EconomicActivity, v. 2,1990.
DORNBUSCH, R.; DANTAS, D.; PECHMAN, C.; ROCHA, R; SIMOES, D. The black market for dollars in Brazil. QuarterlyJournal ofEconomics, fevereiro, 1983.
DRAZEN, Alan. Political economy in macroeconomics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2000.
EDWARDS, Sebastian. Exchange rates as nominal anchors. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, v, 129, n. 1,1993.
EDWARDS, Sebastian, LEFORT, Fernando. Stabilization, persistence and inflationary convergence: a comparative analysis. Documento de Trabajo, n. 37, Banco Central de Chile, 1998.
ESPEJO, Alberto. Opiano de estabilizagdo heterodoxo: a experiencia comparada de Argentina, Brasil e Peru. 13° Premio BNDES de Economia, 1989.
FIORENCIO, Antonio; MOREIRA, Ajax : Measuring the stability of the price system. TextoparaDiscussdo, n. 673, IPEA, 1999.
HAMILTON, James. Time series analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994.
HARVEY, Andrew. Forecasting, structural time series models and the Kalman filter. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989.
HODRICK, Robert; PRESCOTT, Edward. Postwar U.S. business cycles: an empirical investigation. Journal of Credit, Money and Banking, v. 29, n. 1, 1997.
HOLANDA, Marcos. Convergencia de mercados cambiais, o caso brasileiro. Revista Econdmica do Nordeste, v. 28, n. especial, 1997.
JUDGE, George; GRIFFITHS, W. E.; CARTER HILL, R.; LUTKEPOHL, Helmut; LEE, Tsoung-Chao. The theory andpractice ofeconometrics. 2 ed., New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1985.
KESSEL, Moyses. Regimes cambiais e polfticas brasileiras. Boletim do Banco Central, Nota Tecnica Depec-97/10, fev., 1998.
KYDLAND, Finn; PRESCOTT, Edward. Rules rather than Discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plzns.Journal ofPoliticalEconomy, v. 85, n. 3, 1977.
MARQUES, Rosa. O Piano Cruzado: teoria e pratica. RevistadeEconomia Politica, v. 8, n. 3, 1988.
MASOLLER, Andres. Una medicion de la credibilidad de los programas de estabilizacion en Uruguay: 1978-82 y 1990-95. Revista de Economia, Montevideo, Banco Central del Uruguay, v. 4, n. 1, 1997.
MELLO, Luiz; CARNEIRO, Francisco. Exchange rate management: the case of Brazil. Textopara Discussdo, n. 227, Universidade de Brasilia, 1997.
MODIANO, Eduardo. A opera dos tres cruzados. In: ABREU, Marcelo (org.), A ordem do propjresso: cem de anos de politica economica, 1889-1989. Rio de Janeiro: Campus, 1990.
NERI, Marcelo. Inflation, regulation and wage adjustment patterns: nonparametric evidence from longitudinal data. In: Anais do XVUIEncontro Brasileiro de Econometria, Aguas de Lindoia, 1996.
NOVAES, Ana. Revisiting the inertial inflation hypothesis for Brazil. Journal ofDevelopment Economics, v. 42,1993.
PASTORE, Affonso. Passividade monetaria e inercia. Revista Brasileira de Economia, v. 51, n. 1,1997.
PASTORE, Affonso; PINOTTI, Maria. Inflate e estabilização: algumas liçõoes da experiencia brasileira. Revista Brasileira de Economia, v. 53, n. 1,1999.
PERRON, Pierre; CATI, Regina; GARCIA, Marcio. Unit roots in the presence of abrupt governamental interventions with an application to brazilian data. Textopara Discussdo, n. 349, Departamento de Economia, PUC-Rio, 1995.
PERSSON, Torsten; TABELLINI, Guido (eds.). Monetary andfiscalpolicy. Volume 1: Credibility. MIT Press, 1994.
. Political economics and macroeconomic policy. NBER Working Paper, n. 6329,1997.
. Political economics: explaining economicpolicy. MIT Press, 2000.
PORTUGAL, Marcelo. Modelos de parametros variaveis: uma resenha critica. Pesquisa e Planejamento Economico, v. 23, n. 1,1993.
ROCHA, Fabiana. Monetary reform credibility: some evidence for Brazil.
Estudos Economicos^ v. 27, n. 3, p. 441-459, set./dez. 1997.
SALOMON, Marcelo. Regime switches, biased expectations and the brazilian inflationary experience. Mmuscrito, Columbia University, março, 1999.
SARGENT, Thomas; WALLACE, Neil. Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic. Federal Reserve Bank ofMinneapolisQuarterly Review, v. 5, 1981.
SIMONSEN, Mario Henrique. 30 anos de indexapdo. Rio de Janeiro: Fundação Getúlio Vargas Editora, 1995.
TEJADA, Cesar. Uma andlise econometrica da credibilidade dos planos de estabilização no Brasil: 1986-1998. 2000. Tese (Doutorado) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre.
ZINI, Alvaro. Taxa de cdmbio epolttica cambial no Brasil. 2" ed. Sao Paulo: Edusp, 1993.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2001 César A. O. Tejada, Marcelo S. Portugal
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
By submitting an article, the author authorizes its publication and attests that it has not been submitted to any other journal. The original article is considered final. Articles selected for publication are proofread for grammatical and orthographic errors. The journal does not pay rights for published articles. The Institute of Economic Research from the School of Economics, Business and Accounting of the University of São Paulo (Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas da Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade da Universidade de São Paulo) owns the journal's copyright.
Atualizado em 14/08/2025