Energy transition and deepening of the pattern of productive specialization in Latin America: the European Union - MERCOSUR agreement

Abstract

This article examines the potential implications of the Free Trade Agreement between the European Union and Mercosur for the economies of the Southern Cone. It draws on the theoretical framework of Marxist Dependency Theory. The argument is that the agreement represents a historical continuation of the entropic forces of capital on a global scale, which, by shaping a world market, integrated Latin American economies into the dynamics of accumulation in a subordinate manner. This integration has produced an unequal and combined capitalist development, structurally hindering endogenous industrialization processes and instead consolidating dependent structures subordinated to the economic cycles of core countries. Methodologically, the study is based on a critical theoretical and documentary review aimed at uncovering how the treaty reshapes the region’s pattern of productive specialization, reinforcing its role as a provider of agricultural and mineral raw materials. This pattern aligns with the EU’s strategic objective of advancing its energy transition within the broader context of systemic capitalist crisis and an intensifying geopolitical struggle over the control of strategic resources and rare earth elements. The main findings suggest that the implementation of the agreement could result in severe consequences for Mercosur, including the dismantling of its nascent industrial base, increased labor precarization, and the expansion of the agro-export frontier, with significant socio-environmental impacts. Ultimately, the study concludes that the treaty transcends its commercial scope, positioning itself within a scenario of inter-imperialist rivalry for global hegemony and control over strategic resources and supply chains.