Prospective scenarios for the ethanol international trade in 2020

Abstract

There are growing pressures for more sustainable habits that should be adopted by society, impacting many markets, including the energy one. Fossil fuels are finite and non-renewable sources and are responsible for considerable emissions of CO2 in the atmosphere. In this context, ethanol has been appointed as one of the most viable alternative supply of clean and renewable energy. Brazil has technological leadership in the industry due to the release of Proálcool in the 1970's. In the 2000's, the country was once again in the head of the production of the biofuel, and is facing increased competition from players like the U.S. and the European Union. For the future, a number of uncertainties that the industry will face can be identified, and prospective scenarios being a way to model such uncertainties and assist the development of robust strategies for companies wishing to invest in the sector. The objective of this paper was to develop four scenarios for the international trade of ethanol in 2020 and discuss the implications for business strategies. To this end, we used the method of scenarios development in an exploratory and qualitative approach. The scenarios presented in this study can be used by companies and stakeholders to test different strategic choices and investments in the ethanol industry.