Preditores de permanência e abandono em jovens atletas de atletismo: uma abordagem longitudinal prospectiva
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.1981-4690.2025e39187668Palavras-chave:
Características, Performance, Esporte, CompetiçãoResumo
O objetivo do estudo foi comparar características socioambientais, antropométricas, maturacionais, fisicomotoras e específicas de 213 atletas (97 homens e 106 mulheres) que, iniciando na categoria sub-14/16, permaneceram até a categoria sub-20 e construir um modelo capaz de predizer os fatores que levam à permanência na modalidade. Foram obtidas medidas antropométricas, socioambientais, maturacionais e foram aplicados testes físico-motores e específicos do atletismo. Os treinadores (N=21) indicaram o potencial esportivo de cada um de seus atletas. Os resultados mostraram que atletas com maior tempo de prática, mais vitórias em competições estaduais ou superiores e com potencial esportivo indicado como “muito bom” tendem a permanecer no atletismo. Os homens que permaneceram no atletismo apresentaram o estágio maturacional avançado, menor somatório de dobras cutâneas, melhores VO2Máx, Squat Jump e RAST. Para ambos os sexos, dentre as habilidades específicas apenas o arremesso do peso para as mulheres não apresentou diferença significativa entre as que abandonaram e as que permaneceram. Para os homens, o modelo, apresentou sensibilidade (acerto dos atletas que permanecem) de 84,6% e a especificidade (acerto dos atletas que abandonaram) de 90,5%. Para as mulheres, o modelo, apresentou sensibilidade de 76,5% e especificidade foi de 83,1%. O modelo logístico, apresentou valores mais fortes de predição da permanência para os atletas de alto potencial indicado pelo treinador para os homens e o nível de vitória conquistada para as mulheres.
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