Evaluation of the Special Tax Recovery Program of the Federal Revenue Service of Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x20252133.enKeywords:
public policy evaluation, tax compliance, Special Tax Recovery Program, tax installment programs, Federal Revenue Service of BrazilAbstract
This article aimed to assess the extent to which the Special Tax Recovery Program (PERT), established by the Federal Revenue Service of Brazil in 2017, contributed to the recovery of tax debts among participating taxpayers. Despite the widespread use of tax installment programs, there are no clear criteria for evaluating their effectiveness, nor systematic evidence of their economic effects, as official analyses generally focus only on the amounts collected. This gap, compounded by the scarcity of studies employing rigorous empirical designs, limits the understanding of the impacts of such programs. The study seeks to address this gap by strengthening evidence-based public policies. Given the complexity of the Brazilian tax system, the topic is particularly timely and relevant. The main innovative contribution of this research lies in combining microdata from the Federal Revenue Service of Brazil with a quasi-experimental approach, thereby enabling the results to support decision-making on the continuation of PERT or the design of new tax installment programs. The findings have practical implications for the design and evaluation of policies aimed at recovering tax credits. The study covered 66,075 taxpayers, ensuring representativeness and reliability in the collection of information. Using a difference-in-differences approach, comparing a treatment group (PERT participants) with a control group (non-participants), the research evaluates the tax recovery of these taxpayers between 2017 and 2021. The results indicate that PERT had a positive effect on the evolution of tax compliance among participating taxpayers, with an average difference of 4.17 percentage points in favor of participants compared with non-participants, thereby contributing to the recovery of tax debts. Differences were also observed according to socioeconomic characteristics, with higher compliance among younger firms and certain economic sectors showing higher levels of compliance within the special program.
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