Actuarial fairness in social security calculations:
application of a multiple decrement model to compare the social security factor and minimum age rules
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/rc&f.v29i78.150643Keywords:
Social Security, RGPS, social security reform, actuarial fairness, multiple decrements.Abstract
The objective of this work was to compare the actuarially fair social security rates for the General Social Welfare Policy (GSWP), based on the social security factor rules and the minimum age proposal present in Proposed Constitutional Amendment n. 287/2016. The demographic changes that have taken place in Brazil in recent years raise questions about the sustainability of the national social security system and approving social security reform has been a government priority. Therefore, there is an undisputed need for an actuarial study that calculates actuarially fair rates and compares the current scenario with the reform proposals. Multiple decrement actuarial models were used to calculate the fair rates considering a standard family (25-year-old worker, spouse, and two children), in which the man is three years older than the woman. The IBGE 2015 Extrapolated (mortality) and Álvaro Vindas (disability) tables were adopted as biometric assumptions, and a real wage growth rate of 2% p.a. and real interest rate of 3% p.a. were used. It has been shown that under the social security factor rule current contribution rates are insufficient to cover social security benefits, since the actuarially fair rates are 30.69% and 35.27% for men and women, respectively. However, if the social security reform were approved as submitted, the fair rates would be reduced to 22.25% and 21.60%, respectively. Besides the minimum age, part of this reduction is due to the proposed rules allowing pension values lower than the minimum wage.
Downloads
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
The content of the article(s) published in the RC&F are of the entire liability of the authors, including with regard to the truth, updating and accuracy of data and information. The authors shall assign the rights in advance to the Department of Accounts and Actuarial Sciences of the FEA/USP, which shall permit the publication of extracts or of the whole, with prior permission, provided that the source is cited (Creative Commons – CCBY).
RC&F shall not charge a fee for the submission of articles. The submission of articles to RC&F shall imply that the author(s) authorizes/authorize its publication without the payment of author’s rights.
The submission of articles shall authorize the RC&F to adjust the text of the article(s) to their publication formats and if necessary, to make spelling, grammar and regulatory changes.