Empirical analysis of valuation models in the brazilian environment: discounted cash flow versus Ohlson's model

Abstract

This paper uses equity analysts' forecasts for Brazilian firms to analyze whether there are significant differences between the results from the estimation of equity value when applying the discounted cash flow model (DCF) and the residual income model (OHLSON). The approach used in this research is pioneer, considering that previous papers comparing valuation models in Brazil used researchers' assumptions, based on public information, to implement the valuation models. However, the correct implementation of these models relies on market expectations (i.e. equity analysts) to calculate equity values. Additionally, we evaluate what model (DCF or OHLSON) better explains the Price-to-Book relation for future periods. Conclusions are: i) there are statistically significant differences for estimates of equity value when using discounted cash flow models and residual income models, and ii) Price-to-Book ratios calculated through discounted cash flow models have higher explanatory power for future Price-to-Book ratios than the estimates of this ratio using residual income valuation models.