Effects of Fiscal Responsibility Law on Brazilian cities' debt: an analysis of panel data

Abstract

This study aims to analyze whether the Brazilian LRF - Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal (Fiscal Responsibility Law), as a mechanism of fiscal restraint, has influenced the debt pattern of cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants, covering the period from 1998 to 2006. In order to reach this goal, two econometric models were built, and the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method was used for the calculations. The statistical technique used was the Balanced Panel Data. The first econometric model was used to examine whether there were any alterations in the influence of the financial management variables on debt over time, with the insertion of time dummy variables. The results showed that, in the analyzed period, there was a change in the debt pattern as demonstrated by the variables 'outdated debt' and 'capital structure'. The second econometric model was used to examine whether the alteration of the influence of the financial management variables on debt over time was related to the introduction of the LRF, with the insertion of LRF rule dummies. The results show that, after the introduction of the LRF, the 'outdated debt' suffered loss of explanatory power, while the variable 'capital structure' got increased explanatory power, suggesting that the management of debt and funding sources has become more effective, and debt rollover is no longer a common practice in the municipalities. The results are highly significant, both in relation to the relevance of the selected indicators and the impact of the LRF, confirming the hypothesis guiding this research that the debt of the municipalities was influenced by the LRF.