Analysis of the relationship between accounting information and systematic risk in the Brazilian market

Abstract

According to the existing literature, accounting information represents an important predictor of a company's future cash flow and serves to assess the risk of stock investments. Because such information reflects the economic and financial reality of a company during a given period, this information relates to the systematic risk of an investment, which justifies the use of the information for decisions related to the composition of a stock portfolio. Within this context, the present study seeks to present empirical evidence on the relationship between accounting information and systematic risk in the Brazilian market. More specifically, the objective is to analyze the relationship between the accounting betas and the market betas of companies in Brazil. For this analysis, 97 companies from 15 economic sectors were selected from the Securities, Commodities, and Futures Exchange of São Paulo (Bolsa de Valores, Mercadorias e Futuros de São Paulo - BM&FBOVESPA) from the first quarter of 1995 to the third quarter of 2009. A total of 468 accounting variables were used. To operationalize the relationship between the variables, a regression model with panel data was used. One the one hand, the results show that some accounting betas may explain the market beta and do so in an anticipated manner and that these accounting betas are able to improve the prediction of the market beta when used alongside the historical market betas. On the other hand, the majority of accounting beta versions displayed a rather insignificant or even nonexistent relationship.